451
FXUS61 KCAR 121316
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
916 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will exit into the maritimes today. A
disturbance will cross the region Saturday. High pressure will
cross the region Sunday. A cold front will begin to approach
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
917AM Update...No major changes to the forecast for this
update.

Previous discussion... Although the remains of Beryl have moved
out, a rather juicy air mass remains in its wake and warm and
muggy conditions will continue today. Low clouds and fog have
filled in across the area overnight, with the exception of the
Downeast coast, where a bit of wind aloft is mixing the surface
layer enough to keep fog from forming. These winds are expected
to drop off during the morning, however, priming the atmosphere
for low clouds and fog to form a little later this morning.

In spite of the juicy air mass, not much of a trigger remains
today for showers and thunderstorms. A weak trough passing
through midday may be enough for some scattered showers, mainly
over elevated areas. Daytime heating further south will
contribute to kick off an isolated thunderstorm or two, however
current forecast soundings also indicate a bit of a warm nose in
lower levels, so this may limit thunderstorm formation a bit.
Can`t rule out a few strikes but these will be garden variety
thunderstorms if they do form.

Clearing skies will push daytime highs into the mid-80s in the
Bangor region today, and combined with dewpoints in the mid-70s,
conditions will be marginal for a heat advisory. Have decided to
hold off on issuing anything this morning while we wait to see
if those high dewpoints come to fruition. The next shift may
need to make a different call.

Overnight, not expecting much different from last night
(Thursday), with low clouds and fog reforming as the surface
cools and the atmosphere decouples. Thus, have areas of fog in
for the forecast again tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and muggy conditions continue through the weekend. Saturday
is looking like the more unsettled of the two days thanks to an
approaching upper trough, while upper level ridging Sunday
should suppress convection.

Saturday...
Not only are we dealing with an approaching shortwave trough
and vort max from the NW, but also an approaching vort max from
the SW rounding the base of the trough. The timing of this
latter feature means we could be starting the day with showers
Downeast, and raised PoPs to around 40 percent in the morning to
account for this. PoPs in the afternoon are 30 to 65 percent,
highest Downeast. There is enough instability for storms
anywhere. Can`t rule out a strong storm or two, but not
expecting any widespread severe storms. With precipitable water
values nearing 2 inches Downeast, heavy rain is a threat as
well. Highs generally in the low to mid 80s and muggy.

Saturday Night...
Shower chances diminish through the night as daytime
convection tapers off and the shortwave trough and vort max pass
to our east. With moist soils and a muggy airmass, fog is a
threat. Warmer than average with lows in the 60s.

Sunday...
Shortwave upper level ridging for Sunday. Although it will
still be quite moist at low levels, aloft it will be drier with
more subsidence thanks to the ridging, so not expecting much for
afternoon showers and storms. Kept PoPs just below 15 percent.
Very warm with mid to upper 80s and muggy yet again.

Sunday Night...
Quiet Sunday night and generally mostly clear, with again a
potential fly in the ointment being patchy fog. Yet again, a
warmer than average night with lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The much warmer than average temperatures persist into Monday
and Tuesday, and perhaps Wednesday depending on the timing of a
cold front. Monday and Tuesday will feature highs in the mid to
upper 80s with perhaps a few spots reaching 90, with dewpoints
remaining quite high with mid 60s to low 70s. The subsidence and
weak ridging we had Sunday is gone for Monday to Wednesday, and
expect scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms Monday
through Wednesday. There will likely be a cold front at some
point roughly Wednesday or Wednesday night, but there is still a
lot of uncertainty on the timing of the front. There is also
considerable uncertainty on the amount of cooling behind the
front for Thursday and Friday. It does look likely that we will
at last see some less muggy air and lower rain chances Thursday
and Friday. However, it`s unclear if temperatures will return to
near average or remain warmer than average Thursday/Friday. At
the least, it should feel more comfortable Thursday/Friday than
Monday to Wednesday thanks to the lower dewpoints.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: With the exception of BGR, reductions in flight
categories this a.m. are mainly due to low cigs, particularly
across the north. Think there`s a possibility of fog formation
around sunrise so have kept that in the TAFs for now. Some
mixing through the day should improve conditions to VFR as skies
scatter out, particularly in the south. Slight chance of a
shower at inland TAF sites this afternoon. Isolated TS will be
in the area but unlikely at any TAF sites. Overnight, expect low
clouds and fog to return with little change in atmospheric
conditions from last night.


SHORT TERM:
Saturday... Variable conditions to start the day due to patchy
fog and low clouds, but most places will be predominantly VFR
by late morning and into the afternoon. Scattered to numerous
showers and storms could however bring temporary lower
conditions and gusty winds. SW wind 5-10 kts.

Saturday Night...
Beginning VFR, with variable conditions later in the night due
to patchy fog and low clouds. Light winds.

Sunday...
Variable conditions to start the day due to patchy fog and low
clouds, but most places will be predominantly VFR by late
morning and into the afternoon. Little or no afternoon
showers/storms expected. W wind 5 kts.

Sunday Night through Tuesday...
Variable conditions late night and early morning hours with patchy
fog. Generally VFR mid morning through early evening. Scattered
to numerous afternoon and evening storms Monday/Tuesday. SW
wind 5-10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds have decreased across the waters, but seas
remain above 5 feet and the SCA has been extended through
midnight. Seas will subside early tomorrow morning. Marine fog
is expected to become more widespread today and visibilities
below 1 nm are possible.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft levels. Winds will
generally be from the W/SW/S. Patchy or areas of fog are likely
over the waters through early next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...LF/LaFlash
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...LF/LaFlash/Foisy
Marine...LF/LaFlash/Foisy