Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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638 FXUS61 KCAR 131559 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1159 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A trough will cross the region today, followed by high pressure on Sunday. A cold front will begin to approach Tuesday. The front stalls over the region on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1200PM Update...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are starting to move into the north with the rest of the showers from this morning have moved out of the south. Adjusted the precip and weather forecast to show this. Also adjusted the sky cover with the clearing this afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks good. Previous discussion... An upper level trough will cross the region today, triggering showers and thunderstorms as it moves through. The first band of showers will move through this morning, followed by more widespread showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. CAPE values across the area will generally rise above 1000 k/J early this afternoon, so thunderstorms are expected to start by early afternoon. Not a lot of bulk shear with these storms, so not expecting much in the way of severe storms. There is some variation between the models on how much DCAPE is available with the passage of the trough, so gusty winds may be possible, but didn`t have enough confidence to add enhanced wording the forecast. A bigger concern might be heavy precip with these storms, as PWATs are still running around 1.75 inches. However, the storm vectors aren`t perfectly aligned, so again refrained from any specifics in the forecast. Post-trough passage, skies will begin to clear in advance of the ridging expected on Sunday. Dewpoints remain high across the region so muggy conditions will continue overnight. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Very warm and muggy weather continuing Sunday and Monday. Sunday... The ridging for Sunday looks less pronounced than it had been, and raised PoPs up to around 20 percent for the north since subsidence is looking less pronounced. Could be enough instability for a few storms, but not confident enough in this and kept precip as showers. Very warm and humid with highs in the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps a few spots hitting 90. Heat advisory criteria could be approached mainly interior Downeast. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Sunday Night... Any isolated convection from Sunday should die off early Sunday evening, leaving for dry conditions Sunday night. Mild again, with patchy fog and lows in the 60s. Monday... Subtle upper level shortwave trough with upper level jet support approaches from the west. Looking for a better chance of storms in the afternoon, and went with PoPs around 30 percent mainly north/west of I-95. Again very warm/hot and muggy, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. Some places Downeast including the Bangor region could approach heat advisory criteria with heat indices nearing 95. Monday Night... Not much change for Monday night. Perhaps just a touch warmer with more clouds than Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Hot and humid weather continuing into Tuesday and Wednesday, with the threat of heat advisory criteria each day, and high temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s. A cold front and upper trough will be approaching slowly from the west Tue/Wed, and conditions are favorable for storms each day, and went with PoPs generally 30 to 60 percent both days. The timing of the cold front and upper trough has slowed a bit in most models, and appears to move through roughly late Wednesday or Wednesday night. If the timing of the front is right, and it could be, Wednesday afternoon could be a very active day for strong/severe storms. Shear will be plentiful. Tentatively looking for drying behind the front for most areas Thursday, though could still be enough instability Downeast for a few showers/storms Thursday afternoon. Higher confidence in dry conditions in the north Thursday, and areawide Friday into Saturday. Cooler/drier air behind the front will provide welcome relief, with temperatures returning to fairly close to average or perhaps still slightly above, but the lower dewpoints will be noticeable. && .AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR with thunderstorms expected to develop across the region by early afternoon, but did not think they were widespread enough to add to any TAFs specifically. Possible fog overnight tonight, mainly Downeast. SHORT TERM: Sunday...VFR with light SW winds. Sunday night...Generally VFR, though patchy fog could bring locally much lower conditions. Best chance of fog at BHB at along the coast, but possible anywhere. Light winds. Monday...Generally VFR. Chance of afternoon thunderstorms, mostly along and north/west of a GNR to HUL line. SW wind 5-10 kts. Monday night...Generally VFR, though patchy fog could bring locally much lower conditions. Best chance of fog at BHB at along the coast, but possible anywhere. Light winds. Tuesday...VFR outside of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. SW wind 10 kts. Tuesday night...VFR, diminishing to MVFR/IFR for most sites. SW wind 5 kts. Wednesday...Variable conditions with good chance of thunderstorms. SW wind 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft criteria for the near term. Areas of marine fog will reduce visibility to 1 nm at times. SHORT TERM: Fog will be the primary concern until a strong cold front moves through later Wednesday, when thunderstorms will also be possible. Winds/seas below small craft until perhaps late Wednesday, when winds and seas could approach small craft levels just ahead of a cold front. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...LF/LaFlash Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...LF/LaFlash/Foisy Marine...LF/LaFlash/Foisy