504
FXUS61 KCAR 172343
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
743 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather disturbance will cross the area tonight followed
by a cold front on Thursday. High pressure will build across
the region Friday into Saturday. A cold front will cross the
region Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure will build
toward the region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
745 pm update...
Heat Advisory expired at 5pm this afternoon and this should be
the last one we need for this heat. Relief is on the way as a
cold front is located just north of the St. Lawrence Seaway down
toward swrn Quebec. Front will move through tomorrow afternoon
with drier air on it/s doorstep. In the meantime for tonight pw
values remain above the 90th percentile, around 1.5-1.75 inches
tonight and with multiple waves moving up in sw flow overnight
expect showers to continue after midnight, mostly over Downeast
area in best forcing. Expect isolated storms to be present
through late this evening with elevated instability remaining
thru about 03z. Patchy fog expected to develop over areas that
saw significant rainfall this afternoon. No changes needed with
this update.

Prev discussion blo...
A few showers are popping up on radar this afternoon and these
are expected to develop into thunderstorms as the evening
progresses. Current analysis of stability indices still shows
that the best region for storms to develop remains on an axis
from Dover-Foxcroft to south of Houlton. DCAPEs are currently
800+ in this region, and are expected to increase to around 1000
later tonight as the axis of instability shifts further
southeast. This indicates strong winds are still a possibility
with these storms, however the biggest concern remains heavy
precipitation with warm cloud layers between 11k and 13k feet,
and PWATs >1.75 inches. Unlike the usual scenario where
thunderstorms diminish after sunset, these may last until
midnight or so, as the most unstable air remains elevated. After
the thunderstorms dissipate, fog will form around the area,
particularly further south where more precipitation is expected.

During the day on Thursday, the cold front will finally move
through. This will bring another period of showers and
thunderstorms, although they will be weaker. Although there
won`t be a significant decrease in temperatures, dewpoints will
drop behind the front. Not only will this reduce the convective
potential, it will also provide a break from the mugginess for a
short period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front will move offshore Thursday night, with high pressure
building toward the region late. Could still have the slight chance
of a shower Thursday evening. Otherwise, expect decreasing
clouds with building high pressure. High pressure builds across
the region Friday through Friday night with mostly clear skies.
A cold front will then begin to approach northern areas later
Saturday. Expect a mostly sunny morning, then a partly sunny
afternoon with a chance of showers/thunderstorms across northern
areas Saturday. Expect mostly sunny skies Downeast Saturday.
Expect near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures
Friday/Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The cold front will cross the region Saturday night through
early Sunday. Expect a weakening area of showers/thunderstorms
to move south across the forecast area with the cold front
Saturday night through early Sunday. Surface high pressure will
build toward the region Sunday. Aloft, an upper level
disturbance should cross the region which could help support the
slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm. High pressure then
builds across the region Sunday night into Tuesday. Expect
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies Sunday night into Tuesday.
Uncertainty exists regarding the timing of a possible cold front
Wednesday which could bring a chance of showers/thunderstorms.
Near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures are
expected Sunday/Monday. Near normal level temperatures are
expected Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions over northern terminals, though HUL
may see VCTS for the first hour this evening. Given little
rainfall across the north confidence is too low to include
MVFR/IFR in the forecasts tonight north of Houlton.

For Downeast terminals expect showers, and possibly storms
early, at BGR through 06z. IFR develops at BHB at 05z in fog and
at 09z at BGR. Improvement to MVFR after 12z with VFR expected
by afternoon.

Winds of around 5-10kts from the southwest overnight will begin
to gust across the northern terminals ahead of the front Thu
afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday night through Friday night...Slight chance of an evening
shower Thursday night. Otherwise, VFR. West/northwest winds 5
to 10 knots Thursday night. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots,
becoming west/southwest Friday. West/southwest winds 5 to 10
knots Friday night.

Saturday through Saturday night...Variable conditions with any
showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR. Southwest/west winds around
10 knots Saturday. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday
night.

Sunday...Slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm. Otherwise,
VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday night through Monday ...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below Small
Craft Advisory criteria in the near term. Areas of marine fog
will redevelop overnight and remain through the morning, before
moving offshore tomorrow afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Thursday
night through Saturday. Patchy fog Thursday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/LF
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Buster/LF/Norcross
Marine...Buster/LF/Norcross