Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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939 FXUS61 KCAR 180753 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 353 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will cross the area today followed by high pressure on Friday. Another cold front will approach on Saturday and cross the area Saturday night. High pressure will build over the region Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... The cold front that is currently positioned near the St. Lawrence river will continue to track towards the forecast area this morning, while the pre-frontal trough that sits along a line from Bucksport up through Danforth shifts southwards and exits off the coast. These two surface troughs will provide enough lift to continue the threat for showers across the region, however drier air ushering into the region aloft due to the upper level trough will limit shower and storm develop into this afternoon, especially across the north. The greatest chance for any thunderstorm development into the afternoon hours will be into Washington County, where mid level moisture will linger in proximity to the pre-frontal trough. Temperatures will not be as warm today due to dry air moving into the region and a shift to cold air advection. Highs will lift into the low to mid 80s. Tonight, clearing skies coupled with cool air advection and drier profiles in general will lead to lows falling into the mid to upper 50s. Dewpoints should also drop significantly as compared to earlier this week, with dewpoints in the 50s by the overnight hours. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure building over the area on Friday will bring sunshine, a few cumulus clouds over the north, and slightly cooler and drier air than we have had in recent days. Highs from the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south will be close to normal and dew points will be in the mid to upper 50s as compared to the upper 60s which we have had recently. This will be followed by a clear and comfortably cool night Friday night as high pressure remains over the area. Lows across most of the region will be in the upper 50s. A rather deep cold core upper low will track from Hudson bay into northern Quebec Friday night into Saturday pushing a new cold front south toward our area. The cold front will reach northern Maine late Saturday afternoon. Moderately cool and dry air will already be in place following Thursday`s cold front so this front will not have too much heat and moisture to work with. A few showers and possibly a low top thunderstorm may effect far northern Maine during the afternoon Saturday. Otherwise, the front will only bring in a band of clouds across the north. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The cold front from Quebec will continue to push across the area Saturday night. Other than some spotty showers across the north, the frontal passage looks like it will be mostly dry with just a band of clouds pushing south with the front. Cooler, drier air and clearing will follow the front overnight with lows by Sunday morning in the low 50s across the far north and low 60s over the interior south. The cold front will weaken and reach the Downeast coast early Sunday morning. Northern areas will have sunshine mixed with some fair weather cumulus clouds on Sunday. This will be followed by a moonlit and very cool night Sunday night with lows near 50 north and in the mid 50s Downeast as high pressure settles over the area. As we go into early next week, our focus will turn back toward the warm and humid subtropical Bermuda high to our south. The cool high pressure which comes in over the weekend will dissipate and some moisture circulating up the coast around the subtropical high may begin to push back into the area early to mid week. The GFS carries moisture and a chance of showers in on Monday while the ECMWF still maintains high pressure on Monday. By Tuesday, and perhaps more so on Wednesday, more moisture from around the high to our south may begin to work north into our area bringing a moderate increase in humidity and increased chances for showers. However, with high pressure remaining to our north, we are not seeing a return of the extreme heat and humidity which has been with us through the third week in July. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Generally VFR conditions over northern terminals, though brief MVFR is possible should any patchy fog move in across any one terminal. Confidence is low (less than 10%) of dense fog at any one terminal and has been left out of the TAF for northern terminals. Rain showers continue across Downeast terminals through the early morning hours. Cigs will continue to lower, potentially becoming LIFR at BHB and briefly IFR at BGR. Downeast terminals will are expected to all return to VFR later this morning as cigs lift. Light and variable winds through the early morning will increase after 10z to SW at around 5 to 10 kts, then begin to shift through the afternoon and increase further to 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible as a front pushes from north to south through the forecast area. Skies will clear across all terminals tonight with VFR conditions and light winds overnight. SHORT TERM: Friday...VFR. Light W wind. Friday night...VFR except possibly light fog or mist late. Light SW wind. Saturday...VFR. Light SW wind. Saturday night...VFR. Light W wind. Sunday...VFR. Light W to NW wind. Sunday night...VFR except in some valley fog late. Light W wind, becoming calm. Monday...VFR Light W wind. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds and seas should remain below small craft advisory criteria today through tonight. Winds may briefly gust near 20 kts early this morning before decreasing through the rest of the day. Seas may briefly reach 5 ft on the outermost reaches of the coastal waters. Patchy fog could reduce visibility below 1 NM through the day today. Scattered showers will continue through the day as well before skies clear out overnight. SHORT TERM: Wind and seas are expected to be below SCA through this weekend and into early next week. Slightly drier air will likely result in improved visibilities over the water. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...AStrauser Short Term...Bloomer Long Term...Bloomer Aviation...AStrauser/Bloomer Marine...AStrauser/Bloomer