104
FXUS62 KCAE 102342
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
742 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper trough passes north of the area tonight into Friday. This
trough is replaced by ridging this weekend, allowing temperatures
to slowly rise with typical summertime showers and thunderstorms.
The ridge breaks down early next week, leading to cooler temperatures
and higher rain chances once again during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon and
evening with damaging winds and flash flooding possible.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push off to the east
this evening, with some light rainfall still possible overnight
as a shortwave moves through the region. Winds turning light and
variable overnight. With plenty of moisture still across the
region, can not rule out lower stratus formation, and even some
patchy fog late tonight and towards morning. Overnight lows
should still be on track to bottom out in the lower 70s for many
areas, which is close to where the current rain cooled airmass
is currently sitting at for many sites.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms expected each
  day.
- Temperatures gradually warm through the weekend.

The upper trough that has brought more widespread
showers/storms will begin its exit Friday as 500mb heights
slowly rise through the day and moisture decreases some with
mean HREF PWAT`s being between 1.8-2.0" as flow turns a bit more
westerly. One last piece of shortwave energy brings another
shot at scattered storms during the afternoon and evening
Friday, though the recent 12z HREF mean solution and its members
depict coverage being less than has been seen the past couple
days, likely due to decreasing moisture and heights that will be
slowly rising. Storms that do develop however, will bring
similar risks to those from the previous days as ample
instability is shown in forecast soundings (MLCAPE of 1500-2000
J/kg). With high moisture lingering above a decently mixed
boundary layer, some gusty downburst winds will be possible in
the strongest storms as they collapse. Due to this potential,
the whole CWA is in a Marginal Risk for severe weather Friday
(level 1 out of 5). Luckily the influence of the upper trough
brings increasing flow aloft and thus while storms in this pulse
environment will still have slower motions, they will at least
have some steering flow to allow them to translate. Long/skinny
CAPE profiles over deep moisture will bring another day with a
potential for heavy rainfall and possible spots of flash
flooding, especially toward the northern Midlands and a swath
from Burke County GA toward Barnwell, Orangeburg, Aiken, and
Lexington Counties, where increased soil moistures will make
these areas a bit more sensitive to heavy rain.

This weekend, upper troughing is replaced with ridging and
moisture that returns to more seasonable levels. The building of
ridging will allow hot/muggy conditions to move back into the
region as heat indices peaking around 100-105 will be possible,
mainly Sunday. More typical summertime convection is expected
each day as PoP`s become more isolated to scattered each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Above normal temperatures on Monday with heat indices peaking
  between between 100-105.
- Upper ridging breaks down into the midweek, bringing near
  normal temperatures and increase rain chances.

The EC Ensemble and GEFS mean 500 mb anomaly solution are in
decent agreement with ridging remaining overhead Monday,
bringing another day with heat indices that top out near 105 and
climatological precip chances. This ridging slowly breaks down
during the midweek as an area of low pressure approaches the
Bahamas, aiding in turning low level flow more southeasterly to
easterly and bringing PWAT`s near 120% of normal and increasing
PoP`s. Increased PoP`s look to keep temperatures closer to
normal as well into the mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periodic restrictions to continue through the overnight TAF
period, with thunderstorms giving way to showers, then
eventually the showers and and low-level stratus forms.

Shower and a few thunderstorms to continue across much of the
area through 03z, with restrictions mostly in visibility possible
in the stronger activity. Most showers should be ending around
03z at all sites, then a period of vfr should occur through 07z.
Later tonight with light winds and plenty of moisture across the
area, expect additional restrictions in both ceilings and
visibilities toward daybreak, particularly at locations which
receive heavier rainfall the past 12 hours or so. Guidance is
keying in on CAE/CUB/OGB in particular. A return to vfr then
expected by 15z at all taf locations. Additional showers will
become possible again Friday afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is the possibility of
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms this week with the
potential for periodic restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$