573
FXUS62 KCAE 110703
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
303 AM EDT Sun Aug 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures and high humidity are likely to lead to triple
digit heat indices again today. Scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are also likely this afternoon. River flooding is
expected to continue over the next several days. Temperatures then
cool off slightly early this week with daily chances of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms continuing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Patchy fog possible around daybreak

Storms should diminish in coverage and intensity by midnight at the
latest, with clouds likely diminishing thereafter as well. Lows
tonight are expected to be in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated flash flooding and severe storm potential on Sunday,
  with decreasing risk on Monday

The upper level pattern will be relatively zonal through the start
of the week with a weak and diffuse surface boundary stalled across
the area. This will raise a couple concerns as instability will be
moderate to strong with CAPE in excess of 2000 J/Kg and DCAPE values
around 1000 J/Kg. Pwat values will also remain in the 1.9 to 2.2
inch range and when combined with the surface boundary expect mainly
diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop each day. Pops will
range from chance in the western Midlands to likely in the eastern
Midlands with the concerns focusing on potential for strong and
gusty winds along with locally heavy rainfall. The forecast area is
covered by a SPC general thunder each day with WPC having a slight
risk of excessive rainfall across much of the area Sunday and a
marginal for Monday. With soils nearly saturated from recent
rainfall expect any heavy rainfall to have the potential to result
in localized flooding...especially in the eastern Midlands where the
greatest amount of rain occurred. High temperatures each day will
range from the upper 80s along the NC border to the mid 90s in the
CSRA. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A more typical summer pattern through next week with afternoon
  showers and thunderstorms

The upper level pattern will become more amplified through the
long term with ridging building over the central US and a trough
over the eastern US. This will keep the area under typical
summertime conditions with chances of mainly afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. The chances of convection
will mainly be controlled by upstream convection, short waves
and MCSs which could move into the area leading to some
increased chances or nocturnal convection. With the trough over
the eastern US temperatures should be slightly below to near
normal through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR/LIFR conditions possible early this morning in fog and stratus,
especially near the CAE/CUB/OGB terminals.

Expect mainly mid and high level clouds this morning, with near calm
winds. However, persistent low-level moisture across the area and
clearing aloft over the next several hours will lead to some fog and
stratus concerns toward sunrise. Fog and stratus may be slow to
erode, but by 11/16z expect VFR conditions with scattered cumulus at
4-6k ft MSL. The air mass should become moderately to strongly
unstable in the afternoon, with scattered thunderstorms expected
after 11/18z. Confidence is still a bit low for TEMPO groups at the
terminals, so used VCSH for now. Winds generally light and variable
increasing S/SE this afternoon around 8 kts or less. Thunderstorms
may produce erratic and gusty winds to 40 kts. Convection clears
late this evening with winds returning to light and variable.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon and evening convection
and associate restrictions will be possible through Thursday.
Early morning fog and stratus could occur, especially at fog-
prone AGS/OGB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Key Message(s):
- Area rivers have crested and are falling. The Pee Dee at Cheraw
and the Wateree River at Camden are currently at moderate flooding
levels, but will fall into the minor category shortly. Minor
flooding will continue on the Congaree River south of Columbia in
the Congaree National Park through tomorrow morning.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$