628
FXUS62 KCAE 122350
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
750 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected again
Tuesday. Then drier air moves into the region allowing for a few
slightly cooler days with only isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Moisture returns to the region late this week and into the weekend
as a frontal system moves into the eastern US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Once isolated convection diminishes, another humid night will be
on tap.

Weak convergence boundaries combined late this afternoon to produce
some isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly south of I-20.  This
activity will diminish after sunset, then a dry night expected
across the entire cwa overnight.  Plenty of low-level moisture
remains though, and this will make for another rather humid night.
Similar to the past few nights, this moisture will also produce late
night stratus/fog in many places. Lows are expected to be in the
lower to mid 70s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):


- Damaging wind gusts possible Tuesday afternoon and evening

Upper level pattern will gradually amplify through the short
term with the trough axis digging slightly over the east coast.
As the trough digs on Tuesday afternoon there will also be a
short wave moving north of the area which will be a focus for
convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Instability will be
moderate to strong with pwat ranging between 1.8 and 2.0 inches.
Although the exact track of the short wave maintains some
uncertainty expect scattered showers and thunderstorms through
the afternoon and into the evening hours. There will be
potential for locally heavy rainfall again expect cell movement
to be sufficient to keep the threat low. The severe threat will
be focused on winds as DCAPE values will be increasing to around
1000 J/Kg and this agrees with the SPC marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms. On Wednesday the trough will dig slightly and
slide to the coast with a weak surface boundary over the
southeastern Midlands and southern CSRA. This will keep a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of
I-20 with slight chances elsewhere. Slightly drier air will also
be working into the area which will lower the heavy rainfall
threat. Mid level lapse rates will also be less than 5.0 C/Km so
potential for severe thunderstorms will also be low. High
temperatures will be in the mid 80s to low 90s Tuesday and
slightly cooler on Wednesday with mid to upper 80s. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday night with mid
to upper 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Drier air moves into the region mid to late this week
- A frontal system may approach the area Friday into the weekend

The upper level pattern will continue to amplify through the
long term with a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes
Thursday night and slowly moving through the Great Lakes over
the weekend an into New England on Monday. This will push a cold
front through the region Friday into Saturday with drier
conditions expected to move in behind the front. Overall this
will keep slight chance to chance pops in the forecast each day
with the highest pops Friday night through Saturday as the front
crosses the region. High temperatures through the long term will
be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is expected for the next couple of hours, with MVFR and IFR
restrictions possible late tonight and into the early morning
hours.

Showers and thunderstorms have generally been much more isolated
this afternoon, staying east of the terminals while still making
a pretty close pass to CAE/CUB. Generally, expecting things to
remain tame and calmish the rest of the evening convection wise
with terminals mainly just seeing high clouds passing through.
Later tonight, another round of stratus is likely, especially at
CAE/CUB/OGB. These areas have seen stratus the past couple of
nights and with weak onshore flow developing around 925 hPa
later tonight, this will favor stratus developing again.
HREF/LAMP/HRRR are showing the sites above as seeing the best
chances for IFR restrictions, which is explicitly forecast
beginning around 08z. Meanwhile, AGS will likely see another
night of ground fog given that it happened last night and
conditions are very similar. So have IFR with an LIFR tempo
group as the ground fog will likely become periodically dense.
DNL will likely see none of this. If the stratus does build that
far west, though, it will make the fog at AGS less likely to
last as long. Restrictions will likely be gone by 15z with
showers and thunderstorms expected to be more widespread
beginning around 18z tomorrow.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon and evening convection
and associate restrictions will be possible through Friday.
Early morning fog and stratus could occur, especially at fog-
prone AGS/OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$