805
FXUS62 KCAE 130550
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
150 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected again
Tuesday. Then drier air moves into the region allowing for a few
slightly cooler days with only isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Moisture returns to the region late this week and into the weekend
as a frontal system moves into the eastern US.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Patchy fog possible again this morning.

Plenty of low-level moisture remains over the area this morning, and
this will make for another rather humid night. Similar to the past
few nights, this moisture will also produce early morning stratus
and/or fog in several locations. Lows are expected to be in the
lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Damaging wind gusts possible Tuesday afternoon and evening

Upper level pattern will gradually amplify through the short
term with the trough axis digging slightly over the east coast.
As the trough digs on Tuesday afternoon there will also be a
short wave moving north of the area which will be a focus for
convection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Instability will be
moderate to strong with pwat ranging between 1.8 and 2.0 inches.
Although the exact track of the short wave maintains some
uncertainty expect scattered showers and thunderstorms through
the afternoon and into the evening hours. There will be
potential for locally heavy rainfall again expect cell movement
to be sufficient to keep the threat low. The severe threat will
be focused on winds as DCAPE values will be increasing to around
1000 J/Kg and this agrees with the SPC marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms. On Wednesday the trough will dig slightly and
slide to the coast with a weak surface boundary over the
southeastern Midlands and southern CSRA. This will keep a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of
I-20 with slight chances elsewhere. Slightly drier air will also
be working into the area which will lower the heavy rainfall
threat. Mid level lapse rates will also be less than 5.0 C/Km so
potential for severe thunderstorms will also be low. High
temperatures will be in the mid 80s to low 90s Tuesday and
slightly cooler on Wednesday with mid to upper 80s. Overnight
lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday night with mid
to upper 60s Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Drier air moves into the region mid to late this week
- A frontal system may approach the area Friday into the weekend

The upper level pattern will continue to amplify through the
long term with a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes
Thursday night and slowly moving through the Great Lakes over
the weekend an into New England on Monday. This will push a cold
front through the region Friday into Saturday with drier
conditions expected to move in behind the front. Overall this
will keep slight chance to chance pops in the forecast each day
with the highest pops Friday night through Saturday as the front
crosses the region. High temperatures through the long term will
be near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is expected to give way to occasional MVFR and IFR restrictions
early this morning.

This morning, another round of stratus and briefly reduced VSBYS is
likely, especially at CAE/CUB/OGB. This has occurred the past couple
of mornings, and with weak ELY/NELY winds developing, this will
favor stratus developing again. Various guidance indicates OGB is at
greatest risk for IFR or potentially LIFR conditions, with CAE/CUB
expected to be MVFR/IFR, beginning around 08-09z. Confidence is
slightly lower for AGS, however this terminal has the potential for
some ground fog to develop off the river. Restrictions will likely
easy between 14-15z, with a line of TSRA/SHRA expected to extend
from CAE/CUB to AGS/DNL moving from northwest to southeast beginning
around 13/18z this afternoon. Precip ends from west to east through
the terminals after 14/00z along with any associated restrictions.
Outside of TSRA, winds generally ELY/NELY 5-10 kts becoming light
and variable during the overnight hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon and evening convection and
associated restrictions will be possible through Friday. Early
morning fog and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions may occur,
especially at prone AGS/OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$