457
FXUS62 KCAE 130916
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
516 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected again
today. Drier air moves into the region mid to late week
allowing for slightly cooler and drier conditions. As a weak cold
front approaches the Southeast moisture returns to the region
for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Patchy fog and low stratus possible again this morning.
- Damaging wind gusts possible this afternoon and evening in
  thunderstorms.

Upper level pattern will begin to amplify today as a trough deepens
through the Ohio Valley and translates toward New England. Plenty of
low-level moisture remains over the area this morning, with the
expectation that calm winds and clearing skies are likely to produce
early morning stratus and/or fog in several locations. These
conditions should clear up later after sunrise as the boundary layer
begins to mix. As the aforementioned trough digs this afternoon, a
shortwave will skirt north of the area. There is already some
convection starting to develop across the Upstate and into North
Carolina, but it is expected to move north of our area this morning.
However, a more organized line of convection, well-depicted by
several HREF members, is progged to move from northwest to southeast
through the Midlands and CSRA this afternoon and evening.
Instability will be moderate to strong with SBCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg
and bulk shear increasing to 25-35 kts late this morning into this
afternoon. PWATs will range from 1.8"-2.2", and although the
potential for heavy rainfall will exist, storms should move fast
enough on 15-20 kts of steering flow to help alleviate widespread
flash flood concerns. Any severe threat is marginal today as
depicted by SPC, with a focus mainly on damaging winds as DCAPE
increases to around 1000 J/Kg. In general the stronger dynamics look
to remain north of our area, and lapse rates will be fairly week
aloft.

High temperatures today will be in the mid 80s north to low 90s
south, however heating may be slightly limited if the morning clouds
linger into the afternoon. After convection moves southeast of the
area this evening, overnight lows should range from the upper 60s
north to low 70s south as drier air starts to mix in from the north.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated showers or weak thunderstorms possible

A shortwave trough is expected to move into the Carolinas early
Wednesday morning. At the surface, a weak boundary will shift
south of the FA through the morning hours. A relatively low
theta-e air mass will move in for Wednesday afternoon with PWAT
values around or lower than 1.5 inches for much of the area. The
drier, slightly cooler conditions will be a nice change of pace
from the very humid air mass currently in place. A tight
moisture gradient across the CSRA and southern Midlands along
with some convergence along the surface boundary could still
produce a few showers on Wednesday afternoon. Mid-level lapse
rates will not support strong thunderstorms but a few weak
thunderstorms are still possible. High temperatures will be in
the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the
mid 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Widespread hazardous weather unlikely

Dry air remains in place for Thursday supporting a dry forecast
with near or slightly below normal temperatures. An upper level
low will move into the Great Lakes region on Friday and into
Saturday. At the surface, a cold front should swing into the
Southeast late Friday through Saturday. Moisture advection ahead
of the front appears weak with the stronger dynamics remaining
well north of the forecast area. However PWAT values should rise
back to 1.75 to 2 inches ahead of the front. This should allow
for at least a slight chance of rain as the front pushes
through. Dry air behind the front for the weekend will work to
keep rain chances low. Temperatures through the long term should
be near or slightly cooler than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR is expected to give way to occasional MVFR and IFR restrictions
early this morning.

This morning, another round of stratus and briefly reduced VSBYS is
likely, especially at CAE/CUB/OGB. This has occurred the past couple
of mornings, and with weak ELY/NELY winds developing, this will
favor stratus developing again. Various guidance indicates OGB is at
greatest risk for IFR or potentially LIFR conditions, with CAE/CUB
expected to be MVFR/IFR, beginning around 08-09z. Confidence is
slightly lower for AGS, however this terminal has the potential for
some ground fog to develop off the river. Restrictions will likely
easy between 14-15z, with a line of TSRA/SHRA expected to extend
from CAE/CUB to AGS/DNL moving from northwest to southeast beginning
around 13/18z this afternoon. Precip ends from west to east through
the terminals after 14/00z along with any associated restrictions.
Outside of TSRA, winds generally ELY/NELY 5-10 kts becoming light
and variable during the overnight hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon and evening convection and
associated restrictions will be possible through Friday. Early
morning fog and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions may occur,
especially at prone AGS/OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$