337
FXUS62 KCAE 131818
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
218 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will continue into
the evening hours with gusty winds possible. Drier air moves
into the region mid to late week allowing for slightly cooler
and drier conditions. As a weak cold front approaches the
Southeast moisture returns to the region for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Showers and thunderstorms possible through this evening
- Damaging wind gusts possible through this evening in
  thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening
mainly across the central and eastern Midlands. Currently
thunderstorms continue to move through the central Midlands with
additional cells forming through the central CSRA in response to
a short wave moving through the forecast area. Areas which broke
out of the clouds this morning and were able to warm into the
mid 80s and destabilize continue to aid the development. Over
the next several hours expect the showers and thunderstorms to
continue moving eastward with a few additional cells developing
behind the short wave. With sunset expect the convection to
diminish however with outflow boundaries around the area expect
some additional cells to develop through the evening hours.
Overnight clouds will diminish into the early morning hours then
stratus and some patchy fog is expected to develop which will
slow cooling for a couple hours just prior to sunrise. High
temperatures this afternoon will range from the mid 80s along
the NC border to the low 90s in the CSRA. Lows tonight will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated showers or weak thunderstorms possible

The frontal boundary that has been draped across the area the past
several days is anticipated to have pushed southeastward and out of
the forecast area, ushering in some northerly low level winds. An
upper trough is also expected to dig a but more and slide eastward
through the short term period. A combination of these factors is
expected to lead drier air and cooler temperatures. While the
surface boundary is expected to be out of the area, it should remain
close enough to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
for Wednesday; however, Thursday is looking to be a much needed
dry day across the region. Afternoon highs are forecast to be
in the mid to upper 80s each day, with lows in the upper 60s.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Widespread hazardous weather unlikely

Dry conditions are expected to continue on Friday as an upper ridge
and surface high pressure begin to build over the region. An
approaching front over the weekend is forecast to help shift
the winds to a southerly direction, allowing for an slight
increase in moisture. This could lead to some isolated showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon through early next week as the
boundary lingers around the area. In general, not expecting
widespread hazardous weather conditions through the long term
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered restrictions in afternoon and evening convection along
with early morning and sunrise fog and stratus.

Short wave moving through the area has generated showers and
thunderstorms which will continue into the evening hours.
Convection will diminish with sunset however a few cells cloud
linger into the late evening hours. Potential for stratus and
patchy fog also remains for the early morning and sunrise hours.
Have lowered cloud bases to around 1 kft between 09 and 14z
however confidence in ceilings developing remains low so have
kept scattered clouds. Patchy fog is also expected however the
fog will depend on ceilings developing. With sunrise and onset
of mixing clouds and fog will erode with all sites returning to
VFR by 14z. Winds through the period will be easterly to
northeasterly at 7 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for afternoon and
evening convection and associated restrictions possible through
Friday with increasing chances for Saturday and Sunday. Early
morning fog and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions may
occur, especially at prone AGS/OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$