109
FXUS62 KCAE 132350
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
750 PM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air moves into the region mid to late week allowing for
slightly cooler and drier conditions. As a weak cold front
approaches the Southeast moisture returns to the region for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated showers remain possible overnight.

Drier air is slowly beginning to push into the northern and
western Midlands this evening as a surface boundary moves
through the region. This boundary brought some showers and
stronger thunderstorms through the cwa this afternoon, but
majority of this activity is now south and west of the forecast
area. Enough moisture still exists tonight, along with
additional shortwave energy moving in from the west, to possible
develop an isolated shower or two overnight. However, majority
of the cwa will remain dry through the night. Should see some
redevelopment of some late night stratus and some patchy fog. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated showers or weak thunderstorms possible

The frontal boundary that has been draped across the area the past
several days is anticipated to have pushed southeastward and out of
the forecast area, ushering in some northerly low level winds. An
upper trough is also expected to dig a but more and slide eastward
through the short term period. A combination of these factors is
expected to lead drier air and cooler temperatures. While the
surface boundary is expected to be out of the area, it should remain
close enough to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
for Wednesday; however, Thursday is looking to be a much needed
dry day across the region. Afternoon highs are forecast to be
in the mid to upper 80s each day, with lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Widespread hazardous weather unlikely

Dry conditions are expected to continue on Friday as an upper ridge
and surface high pressure begin to build over the region. An
approaching front over the weekend is forecast to help shift
the winds to a southerly direction, allowing for an slight
increase in moisture. This could lead to some isolated showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon through early next week as the
boundary lingers around the area. In general, not expecting
widespread hazardous weather conditions through the long term
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to generally prevail over the next 24
hours, with MVFR or IFR cig restrictions possible for a few
hours tonight.

The weather is quiet right now largely owing to an early start
on convection today! A well defined shortwave trough pushed
through the area this afternoon, with thunderstorms generally
gone by 21z at all sites. Subsidence behind this feature has
helped keep us cloudy and calm the past few hours. This also
helped push a boundary through the area with that sinking
further southwest over the past few hours. Northeasterly flow is
now common and should shift some direr air into the forecast
area overnight. Stratus is again expected to develop tonight,
with HRRR/HREF showing the OGB/AGS/DNL sites seeing the best
probability of any restrictions as the boundary will be closest
to them. There is a chance that it doesn`t pan out; however,
probabilities are high enough to justify explicitly forecasting
it there with a lower probability at CAE/CUB. Restrictions
should be over by mid-morning tomorrow, with dry air filtering
in and helping keep rain chances low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low potential for afternoon and
evening convection and associated restrictions possible through
Friday with increasing chances for Saturday and Sunday. Early
morning fog and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions may
occur, especially at prone AGS/OGB.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$