137
FXUS62 KCAE 140539
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
139 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier air moves into the region mid to late week allowing for
slightly cooler and drier conditions. As a weak cold front
approaches the Southeast moisture returns to the region for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated showers remain possible overnight.

Drier air is slowly beginning to push into the northern and
western Midlands this evening as a surface boundary moves
through the region. This boundary brought some showers and
stronger thunderstorms through the cwa this afternoon, but
majority of this activity is now south and west of the forecast
area. Enough moisture still exists tonight, along with
additional shortwave energy moving in from the west, to possible
develop an isolated shower or two overnight. However, majority
of the cwa will remain dry through the night. Should see some
redevelopment of some late night stratus and some patchy fog. Lows
tonight will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated showers or weak thunderstorms possible

The frontal boundary that has been draped across the area the past
several days is anticipated to have pushed southeastward and out of
the forecast area, ushering in some northerly low level winds. An
upper trough is also expected to dig a but more and slide eastward
through the short term period. A combination of these factors is
expected to lead drier air and cooler temperatures. While the
surface boundary is expected to be out of the area, it should remain
close enough to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
for Wednesday; however, Thursday is looking to be a much needed
dry day across the region. Afternoon highs are forecast to be
in the mid to upper 80s each day, with lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Widespread hazardous weather unlikely

Dry conditions are expected to continue on Friday as an upper ridge
and surface high pressure begin to build over the region. An
approaching front over the weekend is forecast to help shift
the winds to a southerly direction, allowing for an slight
increase in moisture. This could lead to some isolated showers
and thunderstorms each afternoon through early next week as the
boundary lingers around the area. In general, not expecting
widespread hazardous weather conditions through the long term
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to generally prevail over the next 24
hours, with MVFR ceilings early this morning at AGS/DNL.

Weak frontal boundary is now south of the area. High pressure
over North Carolina extending into the area. Resulting northeast
flow across the area. Satellite showing strato-cumulus and
alto-cumulus across the area at 05z. Guidance indicating a
period of MVFR ceilings more likely in the AGS/DNL terminal
areas with VFR at the other terminals. Ceilings should improve
after 12z with scattered to broken VFR strato-cumulus. A few
isolated showers possible mainly in the southeast Midlands and
CSRA through the morning into the early afternoon. Winds
northeast 5 to 10 knots.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog and stratus with
brief MVFR/IFR restrictions may occur, especially at prone
AGS/OGB. Widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday.


&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$