Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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845 FXUS62 KCAE 141040 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 640 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves into the region mid to late week allowing for dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a weak cold front approaches the Southeast this weekend, moisture and rain chances return. The front may stall over the Southeast early next week leading to a slight chance of rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated showers or weak thunderstorms possible mainly in the southeast Midlands and CSRA. Upper ridge over the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley. Deep low over the Canadian Maritimes with trough along the east coast this afternoon shifting slowly east tonight. Northwest flow aloft across the Carolinas. The frontal boundary that has been located across the area has moved south of the area. High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will extend into the area. This will result in northeast low-level flow/weak cold advection and drier air especially later this afternoon. Precipitable water ranging from 1.35 inches in the north to 1.6 inches in the south. A short wave trough moving through the area may trigger a few isolated showers...perhaps a weak thunderstorm mainly in the southeast Midlands near weak sea breeze convergence area. Although some cloudiness expected especially this morning, drier conditions expected overall, especially in the north Midlands. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s and lows tonight in the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - None A relatively dry air mass and high pressure will likely preclude precipitation over the area through Thursday night. Atmospheric moisture is particularly low on Thursday with PWAT values from 1 to 1.25 inches. Afternoon dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will be a nice change of pace from the humidity over the last few weeks. With drier air in place and light winds overnight lows may get down into the mid to upper 60s, which would be the coolest CAE has been since the first week in July. Moisture begins to return to the area Friday but subsidence over the region should still inhibit convective development. Expect highs each day in the upper 80s to low 90s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message(s): - A weak front works into the Southeast this weekend leading to increasing rain chances An upper level low will move into the Great Lakes region on Friday and Saturday. As troughing digs into the eastern US, the associated cold front will approach the forecast area this weekend. As SW flow strengthens over the Southeast, PWAT values should increase to near 2 inches on Saturday. With convergence along and ahead of the front, and upper divergence over the region, we should see rain chances ramp up. This could lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. At this point the chance for severe weather is low given weak instability and the stronger upper dynamics remaining north of the area. The front is expected to move east of the FA and stall closer to the coast for the remainder of the long term. If this is the case, then the higher rain chances should be limited to east of the forecast area. Temperatures will be near or slightly cooler than normal in the long term. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected to generally prevail over the next 24 hours, with MVFR ceilings possible early this morning at AGS/DNL. Weak frontal boundary is now south of the area. High pressure over North Carolina extending into the area. Resulting northeast flow across the area. Satellite showing scattered VFR strato- cumulus and alto-cumulus across central SC at 1030z. More extensive lower clouds near AGS and DNL, so can`t rule out a period of MVFR ceilings at those sites through about 14z. A few isolated showers possible mainly in the southeast Midlands and CSRA through the afternoon but minimal impacts expected. A few lingering high clouds in the evening but mainly clear after 00z. Winds northeast 5 to 10 knots shifting to the east. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions may occur, especially at prone AGS/OGB. Widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...