617
FXUS62 KCAE 141835
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
235 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area through late this week
allowing for dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As
a weak cold front approaches the Southeast this weekend,
moisture and rain chances return. The front may stall over the
Southeast early next week leading to continued slight chances
for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Calm weather with pleasant overnight low temperatures

Satellite imagery and surface obs show weakly developed cumulus
field has developed across the area as northerly flow continues
pushing drier air into the area. Along the coast a few showers
have developed and are gradually pushing inland. There is just a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
early evening in the far southeastern Midlands and and southern
CSRA. Any convection which develops will quickly dissipate with
sunset along with much of the cumulus. Overnight high pressure
will continue to ridge into the area keeping dry air in place
however with a short wave rotating through the area toward the
base of the trough expect some cloudiness to linger overnight
mainly over the southern half of the forecast area. With the
drier air and light winds over the area tonight temperatures
will fall into the mid to upper 60s at most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Quiet weather with dry conditions expected.

Thursday and Friday are expected to be dry as upper ridging and
surface high pressure build in over the area. However, an upper
trough and associated surface frontal boundary over the Upper
Midwest begin to drift toward the forecast area. As a result,
overall atmospheric moisture is anticipated to increase on Friday as
southwesterly flow is forecast over the region. Despite the increase
in moisture, rain is not expected as the boundary is forecast to be
too far west of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A weak front works into the Southeast this weekend leading to
  the chance for rain.

The upper trough and frontal boundary is forecast to move into, and
possibly through the area on Saturday. This brings us our next
chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
frontal boundary then likely slows down or becomes quasi-stationary
near the coast, keeping the chances for mainly isolated showers and
storms into the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Cumulus have developed across the terminals as light
northeasterly winds continue pushing drier air into the region.
Through the period high pressure will be in control of the
surface with some mid clouds associated with a short wave
crossing the area. Winds through the period will be
northeasterly at 7 knots or less.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in early morning fog
and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions possible at prone
AGS/OGB. Widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$