845
FXUS62 KCAE 142352
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
752 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area through late this week
allowing for dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As
a weak cold front approaches the Southeast this weekend,
moisture and rain chances return. The front may stall over the
Southeast early next week leading to continued slight chances
for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Calm weather with pleasant overnight low temperatures

Satellite imagery and surface obs show northerly flow continues
pushing drier air into the area. What few showers we had earlier
have all but dissipated with the loss of daytime heating, and
dry conditions will occur overnight. Should still see some high
cloudiness through the night as weak upper shortwave moves
through the region. With the drier air and light winds over the
area tonight temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 60s
at most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Quiet weather with dry conditions expected.

Thursday and Friday are expected to be dry as upper ridging and
surface high pressure build in over the area. However, an upper
trough and associated surface frontal boundary over the Upper
Midwest begin to drift toward the forecast area. As a result,
overall atmospheric moisture is anticipated to increase on Friday as
southwesterly flow is forecast over the region. Despite the increase
in moisture, rain is not expected as the boundary is forecast to be
too far west of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A weak front works into the Southeast this weekend leading to
  the chance for rain.

The upper trough and frontal boundary is forecast to move into, and
possibly through the area on Saturday. This brings us our next
chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
frontal boundary then likely slows down or becomes quasi-stationary
near the coast, keeping the chances for mainly isolated showers and
storms into the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Cumulus field has begin to dissipate with the loss of daytime
heating, and much of the overnight hours will only have some
scattered to broken cirrus streaming over the region. Winds will
turn light and variable through the night, then become more
easterly around 5 knots by late morning on Thursday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in early morning fog
and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions possible at prone
AGS/OGB. Widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$