052
FXUS62 KCAE 150517
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
117 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area through Friday allowing for
dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a weak cold
front approaches the Southeast this weekend, moisture and rain
chances return. The front may stall over the Southeast early
next week leading to continued slight chances for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Quiet weather with dry conditions expected.

Upper trough off the east coast will move further offshore as
an upper ridge over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley builds east into the region. A surface pressure ridge
centered over the Mid Atlantic will extend into the area. Low-
level moisture appears to decrease a bit, especially over the
central and northern Midlands. So, this moisture will be mainly
confined to the CSRA and SC Piedmont. Models show a weak short
wave trough moving southeast over the ridge this afternoon, so
an increase in mid level clouds possible. But bulk of clouds
may be west of the area in upslope flow. HREF suggests maybe
some sprinkles this afternoon near the Piedmont as short wave
moves through but model pops quite low. Will continue dry
forecast. With subsidence, expect afternoon temps a degree or
two warmer than yesterday. So highs mainly in the mid to upper
80s, perhaps 90 in a few spots. Overnight lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Quiet weather with dry conditions expected.

Friday is expected to be dry as upper ridging and surface high
pressure build in over the area. However, an upper trough and
associated surface frontal boundary over the Upper Midwest begin
to drift toward the forecast area. As a result, overall
atmospheric moisture is anticipated to increase on Friday as
southwesterly flow is forecast over the region. Despite the
increase in moisture, rain is not expected as the boundary is
forecast to be too far west of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A weak front works into the Southeast this weekend leading to
  the chance for rain.

The upper trough and frontal boundary is forecast to move into, and
possibly through the area on Saturday. This brings us our next
chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The
frontal boundary then likely slows down or becomes quasi-stationary
near the coast, keeping the chances for mainly isolated showers and
storms into the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR. Patchy shallow fog at AGS through 12z this morning.

High pressure over North Carolina extending into the area. Satellite
and obs showing mid level clouds in the Upstate moving southeast
but eroding. Expect a few mid and high level clouds through the
morning at times. Enough low-level moisture especially in the
CSRA for scattered high based cumulus. Maybe mid level ceilings
through the day. Winds will be east 5 to 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in early morning fog
and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions possible at prone
AGS/OGB. Widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$