866
FXUS62 KCAE 150531
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
131 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area through Friday allowing for
dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a weak cold
front approaches the Southeast this weekend, moisture and rain
chances return. The front may stall over the Southeast early
next week leading to continued slight chances for rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Quiet weather with dry conditions expected.

Upper trough off the east coast will move further offshore as
an upper ridge over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley builds east into the region. A surface pressure ridge
centered over the Mid Atlantic will extend into the area. Low-
level moisture appears to decrease a bit, especially over the
central and northern Midlands. So, this moisture will be mainly
confined to the CSRA and SC Piedmont. Models show a weak short
wave trough moving southeast over the ridge this afternoon, so
an increase in mid level clouds possible. But bulk of clouds
may be west of the area in upslope flow. HREF suggests maybe
some sprinkles this afternoon near the Piedmont as short wave
moves through but model pops quite low. Will continue dry
forecast. With subsidence, expect afternoon temps a degree or
two warmer than yesterday. So highs mainly in the mid to upper
80s, perhaps 90 in a few spots. Overnight lows in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry weather will continue.

One more dry day will be on tap as dry high pressure still
controls the weather pattern through Friday night. Best chance
for any rainfall will remain well west of the cwa, mainly in the
mountains where better moisture may reside. A cold front will
begin to approach the region late Friday night, but conditions
remain dry overnight. Daytime highs around 90, while overnight
lows fall to around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A weak front works into the Southeast this weekend leading to
  the chance for rain.

The weekend will bring the approaching cold front into the area.
There will be some moisture increase ahead of the front, and do
expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to form along
the front. This boundary will then slow and become nearly
stationary near the coast late in the weekend into next week.
With the front and better moisture off to the east, that will be
where the best chances for afternoon convection will reside
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR. Patchy shallow fog at AGS through 12z this morning.

High pressure over North Carolina extending into the area. Satellite
and obs showing mid level clouds in the Upstate moving southeast
but eroding. Expect a few mid and high level clouds through the
morning at times. Enough low-level moisture especially in the
CSRA for scattered high based cumulus. Maybe mid level ceilings
through the day. Winds will be east 5 to 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in early morning fog
and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions possible at prone
AGS/OGB. Widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$