Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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202 FXUS62 KCAE 151026 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 626 AM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will be over the area through Friday allowing for dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a weak cold front approaches the Southeast this weekend, moisture and rain chances return. The front may stall over the Southeast early next week leading to continued slight chances for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Quiet weather with dry conditions expected. Upper trough off the east coast will move further offshore as an upper ridge over the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley builds east into the region. A surface pressure ridge centered over the Mid Atlantic will extend into the area. Low- level moisture appears to decrease a bit, especially over the central and northern Midlands. So, this moisture will be mainly confined to the CSRA and SC Piedmont. Models show a weak short wave trough moving southeast over the ridge this afternoon, so an increase in mid level clouds possible. But bulk of clouds may be west of the area in upslope flow. HREF suggests maybe some sprinkles this afternoon near the Piedmont as short wave moves through but model pops quite low. Will continue dry forecast. With subsidence, expect afternoon temps a degree or two warmer than yesterday. So highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s, perhaps 90 in a few spots. Overnight lows in the upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Dry weather will continue. One more dry day will be on tap as dry high pressure still controls the weather pattern through Friday night. Best chance for any rainfall will remain well west of the cwa, mainly in the mountains where better moisture may reside. A cold front will begin to approach the region late Friday night, but conditions remain dry overnight. Daytime highs around 90, while overnight lows fall to around 70. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message(s): - A weak front works into the Southeast this weekend leading to the chance for rain. The weekend will bring the approaching cold front into the area. There will be some moisture increase ahead of the front, and do expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to form along the front. This boundary will then slow and become nearly stationary near the coast late in the weekend into next week. With the front and better moisture off to the east, that will be where the best chances for afternoon convection will reside into next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR. Patchy early morning shallow fog mainly at AGS and OGB Friday morning. High pressure over North Carolina extending into the area. Satellite and obs showing mid level clouds in the Upstate moving southeast but eroding somewhat. Expect a few mid and high level clouds through the morning at times. Enough low-level moisture especially in the CSRA for scattered high based cumulus. Maybe mid level ceilings developing by 18z. Winds will be east 5 to 10 knots. Patchy shallow fog late tonight mainly AGS/OGB due to nocturnal cooling and shallow moisture. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in early morning fog and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions possible at prone AGS/OGB. Widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms Saturday through Monday. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$