913
FXUS62 KCAE 151812
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
212 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area through Friday allowing for
dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a cold front
approaches the Southeast US this weekend, moisture and rain
chances return. The front may stall over the region early next
week leading to continued slight chances for rain, mainly near
the Coastal Plain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Quiet weather with dry conditions expected.

Very quiet weather continues across the region today. Upper
trough is still present across the eastern CONUS but is slowly
drifting east away from the area. While this will be temporary,
as another trough looks to approach tomorrow and Saturday,
shortwave ridging is replacing this feature especially across
the Carolinas, allowing subsidence to really take hold of the
area. HREF soundings at CAE through the day reveal a stout
subsidence inversion between 700 & 500 hPa, with a sliver of
CAPE below that around the LCL. This may foster a bit of light
shower activity this afternoon but those are generally expected
to stay light and very widely scattered, if they happen at all.
Surface high pressure is dominant as well, with temps slightly
below normal and dewpoints only in the mid 60s! So the afternoon
really should continue to be quite pleasant, with highs in the
88F-90F range across the area. As we get into tonight, pleasant
weather will continue, with another night of lows probably
falling into the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry weather will continue on Friday.
- Showers and thunderstorm chances return for the weekend as a
  cold front approaches.
- A few thunderstorms may be strong this weekend with damaging
  wind gusts as the primary severe hazard.

High pressure and upper ridging remain in control of our weather
on Friday. This means that the weather will likely be similar
to today with a low (less than 20 percent) chance of a passing
shower across our northern and western counties. Temperatures
are forecast to be a couple degrees warmer but still at or below
seasonal values for mid-August.

A cold front approaches on Saturday and will move into the
region on Sunday. Moisture is expected to increase ahead of the
boundary with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible Saturday afternoon and evening. The Day 3 SPC outlook
places the I-26 corridor and points to the north and west in a
Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather. It is these locations
that will have the greatest risk of seeing rain on Saturday.
Inverted-V soundings and dry air shown in modeled soundings will
support a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps some small
hail as well. With PWATs at or in excess of 2 inches,
thunderstorms could also produce heavy rainfall leading to
localized flash flooding. The front will be moving into the
region on Sunday with a low to moderate (20 to 40 percent)
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area.
CSU severe probabilities show a higher risk for severe weather
across the CWA on Sunday which make sense given the presence of
a cold front. All hazards for Saturday will be possible again
on Sunday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- The cold front may stall near the coast leading to continued
  rain chances, primarily in the Coastal Plain.

An upper trough sets up along the eastern seaboard for the
extended period. The lower heights favor below normal
temperatures through early next week. The aforementioned cold
front is forecast to stall near the coast and with the best
moisture expected to be to our east, there is only a low (10 to 30
percent) chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly along
with Coastal Plain with much of the region seeing dry conditions
during the first half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR. Patchy early morning shallow fog mainly at AGS and
OGB Friday morning.

High pressure continues to dominate the region, with seasonally
dry air in place as well. Subsidence associated with an
approaching shortwave ridge axis is keeping clouds fairly flat,
indicative of low precipitation chances this afternoon. Winds
are very light and generally variable but when they do occur
they`re out of the north or northeast. By tonight, clear skies
will likely foster at least some ground fog at our fog prone
sites, but the extent of which is uncertain. This is mainly due
to the presence of a 10-15 knot low-level jet in the majority of
the BUFKIT guidance, which may be enough to keep fog at bay. For
now, have MVFR restrictions at OGB and AGS to account for this
possibility. By mid-morning tomorrow, clouds should develop
again and generally be fair in nature.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in early
morning fog and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions
possible at prone AGS/OGB. Widely scattered diurnally driven
thunderstorms Saturday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$