192
FXUS62 KCAE 152353
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
753 PM EDT Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area through Friday allowing for
dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a cold front
approaches the Southeast US this weekend, moisture and rain
chances return. The front may stall over the region early next
week leading to continued slight chances for rain, mainly near
the Coastal Plain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Quiet weather with dry conditions expected.

Very quiet and dry weather will remain across the region
through tonight. Loss of heating has lead to a rapid decrease in
clouds this evening. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will
rebound slightly overnight, and low temperatures will drop down
close to those numbers. It will be refreshing, but would expect
to see some patchy fog, and plenty of dew, once again towards
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Dry weather will continue on Friday.
- Showers and thunderstorm chances return for the weekend as a
  cold front approaches.
- A few thunderstorms may be strong this weekend with damaging
  wind gusts as the primary severe hazard.

High pressure and upper ridging remain in control of our weather
on Friday. This means that the weather will likely be similar
to today with a low (less than 20 percent) chance of a passing
shower across our northern and western counties. Temperatures
are forecast to be a couple degrees warmer but still at or below
seasonal values for mid-August.

A cold front approaches on Saturday and will move into the
region on Sunday. Moisture is expected to increase ahead of the
boundary with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible Saturday afternoon and evening. The Day 3 SPC outlook
places the I-26 corridor and points to the north and west in a
Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather. It is these locations
that will have the greatest risk of seeing rain on Saturday.
Inverted-V soundings and dry air shown in modeled soundings will
support a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps some small
hail as well. With PWATs at or in excess of 2 inches,
thunderstorms could also produce heavy rainfall leading to
localized flash flooding. The front will be moving into the
region on Sunday with a low to moderate (20 to 40 percent)
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast area.
CSU severe probabilities show a higher risk for severe weather
across the CWA on Sunday which make sense given the presence of
a cold front. All hazards for Saturday will be possible again
on Sunday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal
this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- The cold front may stall near the coast leading to continued
  rain chances, primarily in the Coastal Plain.

An upper trough sets up along the eastern seaboard for the
extended period. The lower heights favor below normal
temperatures through early next week. The aforementioned cold
front is forecast to stall near the coast and with the best
moisture expected to be to our east, there is only a low (10 to 30
percent) chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly along
with Coastal Plain with much of the region seeing dry conditions
during the first half of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the period, with the exception of brief patchy
early morning shallow fog Friday morning.

Dry high pressure remains through the next 24 hours. With loss
of heating this evening, clouds have rapidly dissipated, with
mainly some scattered upper cloudiness remaining. With mostly
clear skies and light winds, expect some patchy shallow fog to
develop late tonight into Friday morning. By mid-morning
tomorrow, clouds should develop again and generally be fair in
nature. Winds light to calm overnight, then becoming more
southerly around 5 knots through the day on Friday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in early morning fog
and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions possible at prone
AGS/OGB. Widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms
Saturday through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$