531
FXUS62 KCAE 160558
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
158 AM EDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area today. As a cold front
approaches the Southeast US this weekend, moisture and rain
chances return. The front may stall over the region early next
week leading to continued slight chances for rain, mainly near
the Coastal Plain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Moisture increasing today, but showers expected to stay to the
  west of the region.

Deep upper trough over the upper Midwest will be moving east
into the Great Lakes region by this evening. The upper ridge
over the area will weaken a bit especially in the South Carolina
Piedmont this afternoon and overnight. At the surface, the
ridge axis will shift to the coast. Precipitable water increases
to near 2 inches in the west/north Midlands this afternoon and
tonight due to weak southwest low level flow ahead of upper
trough/surface front moving into the Ohio Valley. Soundings
still indicate mid level capping but weaker than yesterday,
especially in the west. Surface based CAPE remains low, maybe >
500 J/kg, possibly near 1000 J/kg as suggest by HRRR in the
west/north Midlands late in the day. Trigger lacking although a
weak short wave may move over the ridge in the afternoon and
evening. The HREF show some convection coming over the mountains
and weakening near the area around 00z. PoP guidance remains
low so will continue the dry forecast. Temperatures should be a
degree or two warmer than yesterday as some warm advection noted
at 850mb but with moisture increase, maybe a few low and mid
level clouds. Continued temp forecast of highs around 90 degrees
and overnight lows in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):


- Showers and thunderstorm chances return for the weekend as a
  cold front approaches.
- A few thunderstorms may be strong this weekend with damaging
  wind gusts as the primary severe hazard.

Cold front will still be west of the region, but moving
southeastward on Saturday. Moisture is expected to be on the
increase through the day, along with an increase in pops. Best
chance will remain over the western cwa closer to the incoming
front, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Although
instability is not overly impressive, much of the western
counties are in a marginal risk of strong to severe storms. This
appears to be mainly due to the inverted-v sounding across much
of the area during the afternoon. Confidence is not overly high
for overall coverage, with models showing limited convection
through the day. Will still continue with isolated to scattered
coverage. Activity not expected to last much past sunset and the
loss of heating though, and much of Saturday night will turn
dry. High temperatures Saturday back into the lower 90s, while
lows Saturday night remain in the lower 70s.

The front actually moves into the forecast area on Sunday, and
this will bring another round of afternoon scattered showers and
thunderstorms as it moves through. Can not rule out additional
strong convection with damaging winds on Sunday. Temperatures
similar to Saturday, with highs in the low to middle 90s
possible, and lows around 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- The cold front may stall off the coast leading to mainly
  isolated rain chances over the far eastern cwa. Best rain
  coverage will remain in the Coastal Plain.

Cold front moves east by Monday before slowly moving off the
coast by Tuesday, Upper trough will set up across the region
through the early part of the week. but may actually stall out
near the coast. Slightly cooler and refreshing temperatures
will move into the cwa, with highs in the 80s and lows down into
the mid to upper 60s. Although slightly drier, guidance does
have some isolated afternoon showers possible through the week,
with best chances in the coastal plain associated with the sea-
breeze. Majority of the cwa will remain dry though each day
into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the period, with the exception of brief patchy
early morning shallow fog Friday morning.

Satellite showing mainly clear skies across the area. Shallow patchy
fog possible toward 12z, mainly at fog prone areas AGS and OGB.
High pressure across the area will shift to the coast through
the day. Expect and increase in cumulus and mid level clouds by
the afternoon. Mid level capping in soundings noted and high
resolution models keep any showers west of the terminals,
mainly in the mountains and Upstate SC this afternoon and early
evening. Winds remain light southwest to south around 5 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low confidence in early morning fog
and stratus with brief MVFR/IFR restrictions possible at prone
AGS/OGB. Widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$