635
FXUS62 KCAE 201034
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
634 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will be stationary across the region for the
next several days with increased shower and thunderstorm
activity mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Some
locally heavy rainfall is possible which could result localized
flash flooding and rising levels in area rivers. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Low clouds and/or patchy fog give way to partly sunny skies.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop later today which
  may produce heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.
- A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe with gusty
  winds as the primary severe hazard.

The forecast area remains wedged between a trough centered to
our north and west and weak ridging associated with the Bermuda
high to our south and east. At the surface, a diffuse frontal
boundary remains in place and will continue to serve as a focal
point for convective development this afternoon and evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and
could once again result in localized flash flooding and gusty
winds due to ample moisture in place with PWATs between 2 and
2.25 inches. This potential is echoed by both the SPC Day 1
Severe Weather Outlook and WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
which place the entire CWA in a Marginal risk for severe weather
and heavy rainfall respectively. Morning low clouds should
transition to scattered cumulus by midday allowing temperatures
to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, which is near to slightly
below normal values for mid-July. Convection should gradually
taper off tonight under partly cloudy skies with forecast low
temperatures in the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-Stagnant pattern persists with a continued potential for heavy rainfall.

A frontal boundary will remain stalled across the Southeast
U.S. early next week. A weak upper level trough remains over the
mid Mississippi River Valley with disturbances moving through a
southwest flow aloft over The Midlands and CSRA. The lower
levels of the atmosphere remain exceptionally moist with
precipitable water levels in excess of two inches. The stalled
boundary as well as the sea breeze front will be the primary
triggers for diurnal convection with the weak upper level
disturbances enhancing the coverage. Locally heavy rainfall and
flash flooding remain the primary hazards as well as isolated
wet microbursts.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-Subtle pattern change with a trend toward less rainfall and warmer
 temperatures.

There may be a subtle shift in an otherwise stagnant weather pattern
later next week. The ensembles as well as the deterministic medium
range models depict a retrogression of the weak upper level trough
and perhaps even the filling in of this feature. In addition the
Bermuda high builds westward into the Southeast U.S. This would
shift the highest chances of precipitation west of the Appalachians
and allow for warmer high temperatures. Will stick with a
persistence forecast until the model blend picks up on the subtle
pattern shift.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Areas of low clouds continue to move through the region early
this morning causing periodic restrictions, especially at OGB.
The low ceilings could persist at the terminals during the next
hour or two, gradually lifting and transitioning to scattered
cumulus decks by midday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop this afternoon and evening, likely
resulting in brief restrictions as they pass over the terminals.
Any convection should wind down after sunset followed by a
possible return of low stratus late towards daybreak Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely each day and
may cause brief restrictions. Abundant low level moisture may
cause early morning restrictions through mid-week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$