292
FXUS62 KCAE 141853
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
253 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms remain possible early this week with above normal
temperatures. Humid conditions continue through the end of the
long term with increasing rain chances later in the week as a
cold front likely stalls across the Southeastern US and a tough
sets up over the middle of the country.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Remainder of the afternoon...Highs around 100 degrees with HI
  values from 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon.

- Warm and muggy conditions tonight.

Temperatures this afternoon range from the mid 90s to upper 90s
across the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area. Expect
temperatures to rise another degree or two as heating continues.

Radar shows some isolated showers across the region. Model
soundings indicate a slight warm layer between 15k-20k capping
making it tough for any storms to break through and produce some
lightning. Will continue with an isolated shower/thunderstorm
for the remainder of this afternoon/early evening. CAMs show
some lingering, isolated convection into the early evening, but
diminished around 02-04z. Should be another warm and muggy night
with temperatures only falling into the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Increasing chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection
  each day
- High temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with
  the potential for a Heat Advisory Monday and Tuesday

Upper ridging begins to break down during the short term while a
trough sets up over the Central CONUS. The Bermuda high will
continue to provide increasing moisture from the Atlantic with
PWATs between 1.75 and 2 inches on Monday and between 2 and 2.25
inches Tuesday. While instability will be sufficient for
convection, the continued ridging aloft and the overall lack of
a trigger should limit development to typical hit or miss
showers and thunderstorms in addition to activity that develops
along the sea breeze. The weak steering flow aloft combined with
the high moisture could cause any convection that does develop
on Monday and Tuesday to produce locally heavy rainfall. Heat
Index values will be near criteria for a Heat Advisory,
especially in our southeastern CWA but will hold off on issuing
products for Monday at this time due to it being a marginal case
and to avoid confusion with the hot conditions this afternoon.
Tuesday appears to be the worst day but the increased risk of
convection puts the need for heat products into question.
Caution will be needed if outdoors either day regardless of
whether an advisory is issued. Trends will continue to be
monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Gradual cooling trend possible Wednesday through Saturday
- Showers and thunderstorms expected each day

Upper trough continues to dig over the middle of the country
during the extended period while surface high pressure remains
anchored near Bermuda. This increase in moisture will combine
with an approaching cold front later this week to produce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day as the
boundary eventually stalls across the region. Continued to lower
PoPs downward due to the ongoing dry conditions and uncertainty
regarding where the cold front eventually stalls. The additional
clouds and convection during the extended should result in a
gradual "cooling" trend with a highs falling to below normal
values near the end of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief period of MVFR/IFR conditions possible early Monday
morning at OGB/AGS. Otherwise VFR likely.

Isolated convection will diminish this evening and will not
mention any chances for shra/tsra in TAFS. Otherwise, skies will
remain mostly clear/partly cloudy overnight with near calm
winds. As has been the case the past few days patchy fog may
occur during the early morning hours but confidence is low. On
Monday, expect light winds from the southwest along with
scattered clouds and VFR conditions 12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical summertime afternoon
showers and thunderstorms may cause periodic restrictions each
day with abundant moisture causing possible, brief early morning
restrictions.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$