Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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024 FXUS62 KCAE 150021 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 821 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms remain possible early this week with above normal temperatures. Humid conditions continue through the end of the long term with increasing rain chances later in the week as a cold front likely stalls across the Southeastern US and a tough sets up over the middle of the country. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Continued warm and muggy conditions overnight. With the loss of heating this evening, any isolated showers across the area will begin to dissipate. Some scattered cloud cover may remain overnight. In addition there will be plenty of moisture across the region. This will bring yet another warm and muggy night to the cwa. Low temperatures are forecast to drop into the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Increasing chances of mainly afternoon and evening convection each day - High temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with the potential for a Heat Advisory Monday and Tuesday Upper ridging begins to break down during the short term while a trough sets up over the Central CONUS. The Bermuda high will continue to provide increasing moisture from the Atlantic with PWATs between 1.75 and 2 inches on Monday and between 2 and 2.25 inches Tuesday. While instability will be sufficient for convection, the continued ridging aloft and the overall lack of a trigger should limit development to typical hit or miss showers and thunderstorms in addition to activity that develops along the sea breeze. The weak steering flow aloft combined with the high moisture could cause any convection that does develop on Monday and Tuesday to produce locally heavy rainfall. Heat Index values will be near criteria for a Heat Advisory, especially in our southeastern CWA but will hold off on issuing products for Monday at this time due to it being a marginal case and to avoid confusion with the hot conditions this afternoon. Tuesday appears to be the worst day but the increased risk of convection puts the need for heat products into question. Caution will be needed if outdoors either day regardless of whether an advisory is issued. Trends will continue to be monitored. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Key Message(s): - Gradual cooling trend possible Wednesday through Saturday - Showers and thunderstorms expected each day Upper trough continues to dig over the middle of the country during the extended period while surface high pressure remains anchored near Bermuda. This increase in moisture will combine with an approaching cold front later this week to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day as the boundary eventually stalls across the region. Continued to lower PoPs downward due to the ongoing dry conditions and uncertainty regarding where the cold front eventually stalls. The additional clouds and convection during the extended should result in a gradual "cooling" trend with a highs falling to below normal values near the end of the long term. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions expected overnight, but some brief MVFR fog- stratus possible early Monday. The highly isolated convection that moved across the area this afternoon will dissipate by 0100z; VCTS still mentioned in the TAF at OGB given nearby storms through 0100z. Light and variable winds expected overnight and into Monday morning. Some brief fog-stratus is possible around sunrise at OGB and AGS, like we saw Sunday morning. So continued a tempo mention at those sites. The rest of Monday looks like a repeat of Sunday with isolated afternoon convection across the entire area. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical summertime afternoon showers and thunderstorms may cause periodic restrictions each day with abundant moisture causing possible, brief early morning restrictions around sunrise. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$