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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
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144 FXUS62 KCAE 160115 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 915 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the mid-week period as a trough sets up over the eastern US and a cold front approaches from the north and west. This boundary is expected to stall over the Southeastern US during the late week period keeping increased rain chances in the forecast with a gradual decrease in daytime temperatures expected through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Another mild night. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight. Earlier convection has produced plenty of outflows intermingling across the forecast area, with some collisions bringing additional scattered showers and storms. This activity is expected to continue for several more hours before finally beginning to dissipate after Midnight. Plenty of cloud cover around tonight will help to keep lows above normal, with readings in the mid to upper 70s still expected. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Shower and thunderstorm chances increase through the period - Hot and humid conditions continue with the potential for another Heat Advisory on Tuesday Upper ridging builds over the Western CONUS during the short term while trough begins to develop in response to this over the east. Meanwhile, the Bermuda High will continue to advect moisture into the region while a cold front slowly approaches from the north and west on Wednesday. This will result in increasing shower and thunderstorm chances, especially on Wednesday as the aforementioned frontal boundary approaches. The lack of steering flow combined with high moisture could result in areas of localized heavy rainfall and potential hydrological issues due to slow moving and/or training thunderstorms. In terms of temperatures, Tuesday is expected to be another hot and humid day. Will need to monitor for the possibility of heat products again tomorrow. The primary forecast challenge for temperatures will be the increased potential for showers and thunderstorms and whether heat index values will meet or exceed criteria prior to convective development. A slight cooling trend should then commence on Wednesday will a lower likelihood for heat products. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Key Message(s): - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each day - Gradual cooling trend continues during the late week period Upper trough continues to dig over the middle of the country during the extended period while surface high pressure remains anchored near Bermuda. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day as the previously mentioned frontal boundary stalls across the region. The front, combined with passing short waves, should support more robust convective development with the potential for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding. A few thunderstorms could become strong and produce gusty winds though the overall severe weather threat appears to be low through the extended. The additional clouds and convection during the late week period should result in a continued "cooling" trend with a highs falling to below normal values by the weekend. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions generally expected through the TAF period outside of overnight convection. Numerous outflows interacting across the region has help to keep isolated to scattered convection going this evening. This activity has impacted every taf site, and with convection still possible through 04z, can not rule out additional impacts at any site. After 04z, activity should be diminishing with lessening impacts the remainder of the night. Brief ifr conditions possible with any storms. Outside of the convection, mostly vfr conditions are forecast. There will still be scattered to broken clouds, but these remain above 6 kft through the period. Convection should increase again Tuesday afternoon, but timing and coverage questions will keep mention out of tafs for now. Winds become light and variable overnight, then increase again out of the southwest around 10 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical summertime afternoon showers and thunderstorms may cause periodic restrictions each day with abundant moisture causing possible, brief early morning restrictions around sunrise. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$