779
FXUS62 KCAE 160402
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1202 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the mid-week
period as a trough sets up over the eastern US and a cold front
approaches from the north and west. This boundary is expected to
stall over the Southeastern US during the late week period
keeping increased rain chances in the forecast with a gradual
decrease in daytime temperatures expected through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- Another mild and muggy night.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is winding down at this hour,
with activity mainly confined to Lancaster County. After this
activity fully dissipates, don`t expect any more showers or
thunderstorms through the overnight. Overnight lows remain mild,
generally in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase through the period
- Hot and humid conditions continue with the potential for another
Heat Advisory on Tuesday

Upper ridging builds over the Western CONUS during the short term
while trough begins to develop in response to this over the east.
Meanwhile, the Bermuda High will continue to advect moisture into
the region while a cold front slowly approaches from the north and
west on Wednesday. This will result in increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances, especially on Wednesday as the aforementioned
frontal boundary approaches. The lack of steering flow combined with
high moisture could result in areas of localized heavy rainfall and
potential hydrological issues due to slow moving and/or training
thunderstorms.

In terms of temperatures, Tuesday is expected to be another hot and
humid day. Will need to monitor for the possibility of heat products
again tomorrow. The primary forecast challenge for temperatures will
be the increased potential for showers and thunderstorms and whether
heat index values will meet or exceed criteria prior to convective
development. A slight cooling trend should then commence on
Wednesday will a lower likelihood for heat products.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each day
- Gradual cooling trend continues during the late week period

Upper trough continues to dig over the middle of the country during
the extended period while surface high pressure remains anchored
near Bermuda. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day as the previously mentioned frontal boundary
stalls across the region. The front, combined with passing short
waves, should support more robust convective development with the
potential for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding. A
few thunderstorms could become strong and produce gusty winds though
the overall severe weather threat appears to be low through the
extended. The additional clouds and convection during the late week
period should result in a continued "cooling" trend with a highs
falling to below normal values by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the TAF period.

With the convection winding down, mostly vfr conditions are
forecast through the TAF period. There will still be scattered
to broken clouds, but these remain above 6 kft through the
period. Convection should increase again Tuesday afternoon, but
timing and coverage questions will keep mention out of tafs for
now. Winds become light and variable overnight, then increase
again out of the southwest around 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical summertime afternoon
showers and thunderstorms may cause periodic restrictions each
day with abundant moisture causing possible, brief early morning
restrictions around sunrise.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$