493
FXUS62 KCAE 162138
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
538 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the mid-week
period as a trough sets up over the eastern US and a cold front
approaches from the northwest. This boundary is expected to stall
over the Southeastern US during the late week period keeping
elevated rain chances in the forecast. A gradual decrease in daytime
temperatures can be expected through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible once again this
afternoon and evening, with some strong winds possible.

The heat advisory that was in effect has been cancelled. This is
mainly due to cooler temperatures from numerous outflow
boundaries, rain cooled air, and plenty of cloud cover across
that portion of the cwa suppressing temperatures.

This evening portions of the cwa will still see some isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the
central and eastern Midlands, with additional showers possible
over the Pee Dee through sunset. Brief periods of heavy
rainfall, along with marginally severe winds remain possible in
any stronger storms. After sunset, activity should be
diminishing, with dry conditions expected by midnight. With
plenty of moisture still across the area, another muggy night
will occur, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected during
the afternoon and evening which may produce locally heavy rainfall
- A few thunderstorms may be strong with gusty winds as the primary
hazard
- Continued hot and humid but with lower Heat Index values

Upper trough will continue to dig into the eastern half of the CONUS
in response to a building ridge out west. Meanwhile, PWATs will
remain between 1.75 and 2.25 inches as moisture continues to move
into the region around the Bermuda High. The continued lack of
steering flow combined with the high moisture could result in areas
of localized heavy rainfall and potential hydrological issues due to
slow moving and/or training thunderstorms. The Day 2 CSU MLP
highlights a large area of higher wind probabilities that stretches
from the Pee Dee through Massachusetts. Given adequate instability
and inverted-V soundings, would not be surprised if we see a few
stronger thunderstorms which could produce locally gusty winds and
perhaps hail as well, similar to what we saw yesterday. Another hot
and humid day is expected with forecast peak heat index values just
below criteria. Will need to monitor for the possibility of one more
day of heat products but the likelihood appears lower at this time.
Having said that, time outdoors should be limited during peak
heating regardless of whether a Heat Advisory is issued.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A stalled frontal bounday will keep shower and thunderstorm
chances in the forecast through the period
- Near to below normal daytime temperatures expected starting on
Friday

A cold front approaches the region on Thursday, stalling across the
Southeastern US. The front, combined with passing short waves, are
expected to promote the development of scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms each day through the extended with widespread rain
most likely Thursday and Friday. The potential for locally heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding in addition to a few stronger
thunderstorms producing localized wind gusts will continue through
the long term. Due to the expected increase in cloud cover and
higher rain chances, temperatures are expected to be lower on
Thursday with near to below normal values likely for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the TAF period.

Weak surface trough over the area may provide some convergence.
Air mass is moderately to strongly unstable. Scattered convection
expected this afternoon. Any convection should diminish after
00z. So scattered cumulus with some higher mid level clouds by
evening. Winds southwest 10 knots with a few higher gusts this
afternoon. Models show a low-level jet tonight around 20 knots
so south- southwest winds may stay up overnight but less than 10
knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical summertime afternoon
showers and thunderstorms may cause periodic restrictions each
day with abundant moisture causing possible, brief early morning
restrictions around sunrise.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$