360
FXUS62 KCAE 180547
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
147 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled frontal boundary will lead to increased shower and
thunderstorm chances over the next few days, resulting in a
wetter than normal 7-day period. After Thursday, temperatures
are expected to drop to near or slightly below normal levels
through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Message(s):

- None

Convection will continue to diminish late this evening with a
few lingering showers possible into the overnight. Expect mostly
cloudy skies through much of the night as convective debris
clouds from upstream move over the area. There may be a few
patchy areas of fog in locations that received heavy rainfall
but widespread fog in not expected. Cloudy skies and warm
dewpoints will keep lows mainly in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms with the potential for gusty winds and flash
  flooding
- Daytime temperatures expected to be near normal by Friday
  behind the passage of a cold front

Upper trough continues to take shape over the eastern half of
the country during the short term as the upper ridge in the
west builds. At the surface, a weakening cold front will slowly
sink southeast towards the FA on Thursday, stalling across the
region on Friday. The frontal boundary, combined with passing
short waves, will increase the risk for showers and
thunderstorms during the period, especially on Friday. CSU
severe probabilities continue to highlight the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday with gusty
winds as the most likely hazard. At the moment, only the Pee
Dee is highlighted on the Day 2 SPC Severe Weather Outlook but
would not be surprised if the severe threat is more widespread
than what we saw the previous few days given the ample moisture
(PWATS in excess of 2 inches), instability (modeled CAPE in
excess of 1000 J/Kg), and lift. Conditions appear to be more
favorable for severe weather on Thursday but the threat could
linger into Friday as well. The risk of heavy rainfall and
localized flooding also continues with a Marginal (1/4) risk for
excessive rainfall across the CWA on Thursday and Marginal to
Slight (2/4) risk on Friday. Thursday will be another hot day
though Heat Index values are likely to remain below criteria.
Temperatures are expected to be near to below normal values on
Friday due to the increased cloudiness and expected rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-The pattern remains favorable for daily chances of afternoon
 and evening showers and thunderstorms

PWATs remain elevated through the extended as moisture continues
to advect into the region around the Bermuda High. While the
stalled frontal boundary will eventually dissipate, the upper
level pattern remains largely unchanged with troughing over the
eastern CONUS sending a series of short waves through the CWA.
Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
develop each day during the afternoon and evening hours with
gradually decreasing convective chances early next week. This
comes with the continued risk for localized heavy rainfall and
flash flooding in addition to gusty winds from any stronger
thunderstorms. Daytime temperatures through the period will be
near to below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Some scattered mid-level cloud cover is moving through the area.
Expect this cover to dissipate into the morning hours. Some of
the latest hi-res guidance shows that some low clouds could
affect the AGS/DNL terminals near daybreak, so have introduced a
SCT007 group to account for this possibility. Convection is
expected to develop again this afternoon, around 21z, and
continue through about 02z-04z. Some fine tuning to the timing
of the convection and possible restrictions will likely need to
be made in future TAF issuances. Outside of the convection
southwest winds, gusting to 15-20 kts are anticipated for much
of the afternoon and evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms may cause restrictions each day. In addition,
brief early morning restrictions may become more likely around
sunrise. into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$