637
FXUS62 KCAE 191026
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
626 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will be stationary across the region for the
next several days with increased shower and thunderstorm
activity. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible which could
result in increasing levels in area rivers. Temperatures will be
near to slightly below through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening.
- Locally heavy rainfall could lead to urban or flash flooding.
- Gusty winds possible with the stronger storms.

Today and Tonight: A larger scale upper trough continues to dig
into the Gulf states today into tonight, which puts the
forecast area under southwest flow. At the surface, a southwest
to northeast oriented frontal boundary is draped across the
region. With the upper flow essentially parallel to the front
orientation, don`t expect the boundary to move all that much
today. A shortwave is forecast to move across the area today,
which will likely act as an enhanced trigger for shower and
thunderstorm activity this afternoon into tonight. Overall
moisture is expected to be around 2" this morning, and
increasing to around 2.25" ahead of the incoming shortwave.
Forecast soundings also indicate long, skinny CAPE this
afternoon, which is conducive for heavy rainfall. A combination
of the high PWATs, heavy rainfall prone soundings, and the
potential for training cells this afternoon, there is a threat
for localized urban or flash flooding. WPC put the area under a
Slight Risk (category 2/4) for excessive rainfall for the
northern two thirds of the forecast area, which seems reasonable
given the atmospheric conditions mentioned above. In addition
to the heavy rain threat, today`s conditions could lead to
isolated instances of strong to potentially damaging winds due
to precip loading in the stronger thunderstorms today.

As far as temperatures go, there is a bit of uncertainty in the
afternoon highs today. Latest guidance has been trending
downward, which makes sense as we should see decent cloud
coverage. Thus, have adjusted highs down slightly to the upper
80s to lower 90s across the region. Overnight lows are forecast
to be around 70 tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
- Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms likely this weekend

The area will be pinched between high pressure off the coast and
troughing over the middle of the country, inducing deep southwest
flow into the state. PWATs will remain around 2" over the weekend,
as a few weak shortwaves generate showers and thunderstorms across
the region in response to daytime heating. Without much wind shear,
storms will likely lack organization, but precip loading will still
elevate the threat for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds. SPC
has extended a Marginal Risk for severe weather across the northern
CWA along the NC/SC border on Saturday, while WPC continues to
depict a Marginal Risk ERO through Sunday. With the convection and
associated clouds, temperatures are expected to be near to slightly
below normal with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-The pattern remains favorable for daily chances of afternoon
 and evening showers and thunderstorms

The upper level pattern will be a bit stagnant next week, with
strong ridging across the west, troughing across the central states
and slight ridging along the Atlantic coast. Shortwave energy is
progged to break off from the trough in the Plains and rotate across
the region, and may also originate from the GoM periodically. With
this setup, it is reasonable to expect daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms to continue. PWAT values should remain around 2", and
thus the potential for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds due to
precip loading will continue. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk ERO for
portions of the area through at least Monday and Tuesday next week.
Daytime temperatures through the period will be near to slightly
below normal with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Improving to generally VFR conditions this morning through early
tomorrow morning when restrictions may occur. Restrictions
associated with showers and thunderstorms are also possible
this afternoon. Then

Scattered pockets of IFR to LIFR are being reported this
morning. Expect these ceilings to improve by 13z or 14z.
Scattered to broken clouds remain in the area, with scattered
showers and embedded thunderstorms moving into the area around
21z. Restrictions at the terminals associated with this
activity are possible as activity moves overhead. After the
shower and thunderstorm activity exits the region, stratus or
fog will be possible late in the TAF period. Winds are expected
to generally be from the southwest today around 5 to 8 kts
before becoming light and variable overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms may cause restrictions each day. In addition,
brief early morning restrictions may become more likely around
sunrise into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$