346
FXUS62 KCAE 070012
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
812 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases, with scatter to numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Above normal
temperatures are expected again, with Heat Index values above
100 each day through next week. Atmospheric moisture remains
high through the long term supporting a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the
region, currently impacting the CSRA most significantly. Flash
flooding is a definite threat with this activity as hourly
rainfall rates per obs and radar have exceeded 3" per hour in
the heaviest rain today. So will continue to watch this as PWs
(per SPC Mesoanalysis) are exceeding 2.5" in this part of the
forecast area. Storm motion is slow and with southwesterly flow
aloft and plenty of converging boundaries, storms have been
training this afternoon and evening. Do expect this activity to
gradually wind down into a more stratiform precip by the middle
of the night but it isn`t out of the question that showers hang
around all night in isolated places given copious moisture.
Temps should bottom out in the mid 70s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s) - Not quite as hot with an increase in
convective activity.

Surface boundary stalled across the area will be the primary
focusing mechanism for afternoon shower and thunderstorm develop
once again on Sunday. Upper trough sets up across the middle of
the U.S., with the southeastern States still on the western edge
of the Atlantic Ridge aloft. Southwesterly winds aloft begin
bringing more Gulf moisture into the area. By Monday the surface
boundary will dissipate, and the main focus will be from left
over convective boundaries, along with possible sea-breeze
activity. Temperatures will cool slightly with the expected
increase in cloud cover through the period, but will still be
from around 90 to the middle 90s. Heat index around 100 both
days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s) - Continued with a more typical summertime
weather pattern.

Pattern will be somewhat stagnant aloft through the period.
Upper trough remains across the middle of the country, with our
area on the western portions of western Atlantic ridge. This
general pattern will keep upper winds more out of the southwest,
bringing Gulf moisture towards the region, while at the surface
winds will be more out of the south to southeast allowing
Atlantic moisture to move inland. Triggers for any afternoon
convection will be inland moving sea-breeze and associated
outflows moving in from the east, along with potential for lee-
side trough over the west. There should be more cloud cover move
across the region each day, so afternoon highs are expected to
stay away from the century mark, with readings mainly in the
lower to middle 90s. However with all the moisture in low-
levels, heat index values will be able to rise back above 100
degrees through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through much of the TAF forecast period with
restrictions in afternoon convection and early morning
fog/stratus possible.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move across
the area with areas which previously cleared now having another
round of convection. With copious amounts of moisture over the
area expect the showers and thunderstorms to continue for the
next couple of hours as boundaries intersect and create new
cells. Will continue to handle the thunder with a TEMPO for the
next couple hours with the activity should diminishing around
midnight. Next concern will be for stratus and fog development
as the moisture becomes trapped under the inversion. Cigs
restrictions are more likely and have remained with MVFR cigs
however there is potential for IFR cigs. Much will depend on the
rainfall and ending time of the convection so will continue to
monitor. Restrictions will mix out by 14z and with heating
expect another day of convection across the terminals. Have
included VCSH at all terminals from 18z through the end of the
period and will adjust as confidence in timing and coverage
increase.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms each day. Sunday is expected to
have the highest coverage in the extended period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$