416
FXUS62 KCAE 061738
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
138 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases, with scatter to numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Above normal
temperatures are expected again, with Heat Index values above
100 each day through next week. Atmospheric moisture remains
high through the long term supporting a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Heat Advisory in effect through 8pm for heat index values up
  to 110 degrees.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
- Isolated Flash Flooding possible

Temperatures have risen into the lower to mid 90s. Combine these
temps with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, we`re already
seeing heat index values over 105F in a number of locations.
With a few hours of heating left, still expecting heat index
values to near 110F this afternoon.

Meanwhile, the cumulus field is becoming more agitated with some
shower activity beginning to show up on radar. Expect the
showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage this afternoon
into the evening. MLCAPE values are ranging in the 1500-2000
J/kg range; however, there isn`t much shear to speak of, so the
severe threat today continues to be minimal. PWAT values are
currently over 2.0 inches across the area and are expected to
remain high. Thus, there is potential for locally heavy rain to
cause isolated urban or flash flooding today.

Rain and thunderstorm chances gradually diminish overnight with
temperatures remaining mild in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s) - Not quite as hot with an increase in
convective activity.

Surface boundary stalled across the area will be the primary
focusing mechanism for afternoon shower and thunderstorm develop
once again on Sunday. Upper trough sets up across the middle of
the U.S., with the southeastern States still on the western edge
of the Atlantic Ridge aloft. Southwesterly winds aloft begin
bringing more Gulf moisture into the area. By Monday the surface
boundary will dissipate, and the main focus will be from left
over convective boundaries, along with possible sea-breeze
activity. Temperatures will cool slightly with the expected
increase in cloud cover through the period, but will still be
from around 90 to the middle 90s. Heat index around 100 both
days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s) - Continued with a more typical summertime
weather pattern.

Pattern will be somewhat stagnant aloft through the period.
Upper trough remains across the middle of the country, with our
area on the western portions of western Atlantic ridge. This
general pattern will keep upper winds more out of the southwest,
bringing Gulf moisture towards the region, while at the surface
winds will be more out of the south to southeast allowing
Atlantic moisture to move inland. Triggers for any afternoon
convection will be inland moving sea-breeze and associated
outflows moving in from the east, along with potential for lee-
side trough over the west. There should be more cloud cover move
across the region each day, so afternoon highs are expected to
stay away from the century mark, with readings mainly in the
lower to middle 90s. However with all the moisture in low-
levels, heat index values will be able to rise back above 100
degrees through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the TAF forecast
period with afternoon convection expected. MVFR to IFR ceilings
possible late.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms near CAE/CUB are expected to
expand in coverage this afternoon into the evening, likely
affecting all terminals. Expect gusty winds with thunderstorms
that affect the terminals, with visibilities of 1SM or less
possible. The highest chance for activity continues through
around 00z. Winds outside of thunderstorms are expected to be
generally southerly less than 10 kts.

Late tonight, after about 06z, a stratus deck is anticipated to
move in due to the residual moisture. There is some question of
whether ceilings lower to IFR or stay MVFR. Thus, have included
SCT007 to account for the possibility of IFR conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms each day. Sunday is expected to
have the highest coverage in the extended period.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.

&&

$$