Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
560 FXUS62 KCAE 282320 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 720 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Typical summertime weather is expected to continue through the rest of the weekend and into early next week with near to slightly above normal temperatures and daily shower and thunderstorm chances. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - Shower and thunderstorm activity winding down. Radar imagery shows some garden variety showers and storms over parts of the forecast area at this time. Expect this activity to diminish as we lose the daytime heating this evening with brief downpours and breezy winds remaining possible with the stronger cells over the next hour or so. Overnight lows tonight are expected to be right around average for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Typical summertime pattern with scattered afternoon/evening thunderstorms and seasonably hot conditions. The stubborn upper low over GA will become more diffuse to end the weekend, allowing upper ridging and typical summertime conditions to prevail both Sunday and Monday. Each day looks to see near normal to just above normal temperatures with humid conditions as moisture slowly increases Monday and into Tuesday with increasing southwesterly flow. In terms of sensible weather, negligible forcing outside of the sea breeze in the late afternoon and evening is seen both days. The sea breeze and convective temperatures around 92-94F bring scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms where soundings indicate moderate instability but weak organizing shear and overall steering flow. This environment should bring slow moving pulse storms with the primary risks of locally heavy rainfall where a storm could sit for prolonged periods of time and frequent lightning. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out with slightly higher MLCAPE and DCAPE values mainly Monday. This activity likely begins to clear during the evening each day with the loss of heating and overnight lows stick to the low 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Key Message(s): - PoP`s increase starting late Tuesday through at least Thursday with approaching trough and cold front. - Temperatures near average much of the period outside of possibly being slightly below normal Wednesday. Starting Tuesday, an upper trough begins to move into the eastern CONUS, extending into the Carolinas by the evening hours with a surface cold front slowly nearing the FA. Troughing should increase low level southwesterly flow some and due to this PWAT`s likely exceed 2" by late Tuesday, continuing through Wednesday and possibly into Thursday. NAEFS and the EC EFI continue to show nothing too anomalous with this trough and at this time, machine learning and AI guidance is not suggesting higher confidence in widespread severe weather, mainly due to the the FA being further removed from the strongest forcing aloft and the surface front likely being fairly diffuse by the time it reaches the FA sometime Wednesday. In general, the increased moisture coupled with stronger forcing should bring more widespread chances for showers/storms starting late Tuesday, continuing Wednesday and possibly into Thursday. The greatest coverage would be during peak heating and into the evening. The 12z GFS and GEFS remains a bit more progressive than the ECMWF and EC ensemble with the trough largely moving off shore by late Thursday into early Friday while the EC members do not have troughing moving out until mid to late Friday. Due to this, some uncertainty remains in how long the sensible weather in the FA will be affected by this trough before ridging builds back in with more typical summertime conditions. Temperatures maybe a bit cooler mainly Wednesday and possibly Thursday due to more widespread precipitation but temperatures return to normal by the late week. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Pretty much rinse and repeat for the next 24 hours at the terminals. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will wind down by late evening. Skies will be partly cloudy overnight, with any ceilings that develop well above any concerning levels. Skies will be mostly sunny early in the day, with increasing clouds through the afternoon as the day heats up. There will be widely scattered thunderstorms again Sunday afternoon, but low enough to keep out of the TAFs for now. Winds will be less than 10 knots through the TAF period, not including a wind gust from a stray thunderstorm. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy ground fog possible each night...but is unlikely to cause significant issues at the terminals. Diurnally driven scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday and Monday. A front could approach the Southeast next week leading to increased thunderstorm chances. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$