Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
803 FXUS65 KBYZ 050731 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 131 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Saturday... With strong ridging along the Pacific coast, NW flow aloft remains over our region, bringing more afternoon & evening showers/t-storms today and Saturday. Satellite imagery shows two distinct shortwaves...one in southern AB (ascent for today`s convection) and another further upstream along the BC coast (Saturday`s convection). Today will be warmer than the past couple days as we see a brief period of weak ridging this morning, mixed W-NW winds by midday, and a bit later onset of convection. This should push temps to the mid 70s to lower 80s. From mid afternoon thru evening, look for isolated t-storms in our west to scattered (30-50%) in our central and east. Instability is modest (250-750 j/kg, highest east) but freezing levels that are seasonably low support small hail with any t-storms, in addition to brief downpours and gusty winds, of course. High res models are hinting at trailing mid level frontogenesis into the overnight hours from Ryegate to Broadus, so it is possible a few showers or even weak t-storms linger along this axis past 06Z. On Saturday, the next shortwave arrives sooner and thus convection should begin earlier in the day...by late morning perhaps across our north. Also, coverage of Saturday`s convection should be higher (scattered) in our west than it will be today, per track of the Canadian wave. Thunderstorms tomorrow will again be non-severe but may produce small hail. Saturday should be just a bit cooler than today. Overall, we are looking at temps slightly cooler than normal for this time of year the next two days. JKL Saturday night through Friday... The weak shortwaves in the flow will bring a chance of precipitation into Sunday afternoon. Currently, for Saturday evening, there is a 40-50% chance of rain over the mountains and a 20-30% chance over the plains. For Sunday, a 20-30% chance will linger over the mountains and the far eastern edge of the CWA. High temperatures Sunday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Then, upper level ridging will build in for the work week, bringing dry conditions and gradually increasing temperatures. By Wednesday, highs are expected to be in the 90s. The chance for highs exceeding 100 on Wednesday have decreased to generally less than 10%. For Thursday and Friday, highs are expected in the upper 90s to low 100s, with a 40-60% chance of exceeding 100 along river valleys. Archer && .AVIATION... Dry conditions with widespread VFR will persist thru midday today. Localized valley fog is possible east of KBIL early this morning, but confidence is very low that fog will impact a TAF site, as winds will remain westerly. For this afternoon and evening, expect isolated (west) to scattered (central & east) showers & thunderstorms, again moving NW to SE. Local/brief MVFR is possible in the shower activity...otherwise VFR will prevail thru tonight. JKL POTENTIAL TS TIMES AND PROBABILITY OF TS TODAY: BIL: 21-03Z (20%) LVM: 22-03Z (10%) MLS: 21-05Z (35%) SHR: 23-03Z (15%) JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 082 054/080 054/081 056/088 059/090 060/096 063/100 2/T 33/T 21/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U LVM 080 047/080 047/079 051/087 054/089 055/094 059/098 2/T 23/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U HDN 082 050/081 050/080 051/089 055/091 057/096 059/101 2/T 33/T 31/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/G MLS 079 053/079 054/079 055/086 058/089 060/093 063/098 3/T 43/T 21/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 079 052/080 054/079 053/086 056/088 059/093 063/099 2/T 32/T 22/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U BHK 075 050/076 051/077 052/081 055/085 057/088 060/093 3/T 43/T 22/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 080 048/079 048/077 048/085 052/088 054/093 057/097 2/T 22/T 32/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings