Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
071 FXUS65 KBYZ 060727 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 127 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .DISCUSSION... Through Sunday... NW flow aloft remains over the region as a strong ridge has set up shop along the Pacific coast. One shortwave is exiting eastern MT into the Dakotas, but there is a trailing region of mid level frontogenesis which continues to produce isolated showers from near Ryegate to Billings and Decker as of 1am. This activity is diminishing. Upstream, there is another shortwave dropping out of AB and showers are already spreading into north central MT, with some nocturnal lightning on the Canada side. Ascent from the next wave will arrive by late morning or midday... so expect an earlier onset of convection today than we saw Friday (possibly before noon in our NW). Capes today will again be modest (250-750 j/kg, greatest west/central parts) and storms will not be severe, but gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rain are possible. In fact, the 00Z HREF shows a bit greater wind signal today for gusts 30-45 mph (highest probs in our central cwa from Billings to Sheridan). Activity will begin to taper off by sunset but the cyclonic flow and another PV max will keep the risk of isolated showers/t-storms going in southeast MT overnight. Temps today will reach the mid 70s to lower 80s. Heights will begin to rise slowly on Sunday, with some drying associated with ridge to our west, but cyclonic NW flow should allow for diurnal isolated showers (and maybe weak t-storms) over our east and southern mountains Sunday. Pwats look to be 0.80-0.90" over our east, plenty to get some showers going. For western areas including Billings, Sunday should be the first of a string of several dry days moving into next week. Temps again will be cooler than normal with highs mostly upper 70s to lower 80s. JKL Monday through Saturday... Upper level ridging building into the region will bring dry conditions and increasing high temperatures through the week. Weak disturbances in the flow may bring isolated (< 25% chance) showers to the mountains, particularly Tuesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon into Saturday. High temperatures are expected to increase from 80s on Monday to mid 90s to low 100s by Thursday. Currently, for locations along the river valleys of central and eastern areas, there is a 50-70% chance of temps exceeding 100 on Thursday. Additionally, these temps may stick around into the weekend, with a 30-50% chance of exceeding 100 for the same areas on Friday and Saturday. Archer && .AVIATION... Localized valley fog is possible east of KBIL early this morning, but confidence is quite low (10%) that it will impact an airport. Otherwise, VFR will prevail this morning. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the area from late morning into the evening. Storms will move from NW to SE and may produce brief MVFR in heavy rain, small hail, and erratic wind gusts. A few showers may linger overnight in southeast MT. TS POTENTIAL TIMES AND PROBABILITIES FOR TODAY: KBIL 19-04Z (30%) KLVM 18-02Z (20%) KMLS 21-07Z (15%) KSHR 19-04Z (35%) JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 080 054/081 054/089 060/091 061/096 064/101 066/099 4/T 21/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 01/U LVM 079 047/079 050/087 055/089 056/094 059/098 061/096 4/T 30/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/U HDN 080 050/080 050/088 055/091 056/096 061/101 063/099 3/T 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 10/U MLS 079 056/079 055/085 058/089 060/093 064/100 067/099 2/T 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 079 054/079 053/085 056/088 059/093 064/099 066/099 3/T 32/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U BHK 075 052/077 052/082 054/085 057/088 060/095 063/097 2/T 22/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U SHR 080 048/077 048/085 053/088 054/092 058/098 060/098 4/T 42/T 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings