Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
050 FXUS65 KBYZ 150317 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 917 PM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .UPDATE... The Heat Advisory has been allowed to expire this evening with cooler, but still warm, temperatures expected to begin this week. Expect high temperatures Monday and Tuesday to be in the 80s to lower 90s across the region. Otherwise, light showers with only a few embedded lightning strikes are moving through the region this evening. The main threat with this activity remains gusty winds. Have updated the forecast to match current activity/trends. Aviation interests: see updated aviation discussion below. Arends && .DISCUSSION... Through Tuesday night... Monsoonal moisture was bringing increasing clouds to the forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures were mostly in the 90s at 19Z. Weak waves will be moving into the area around the ridge to the S tonight through Monday, and the right-rear quadrant of a 300 mb jet will be over the area through tonight. Backdoor cold front will drop S through the area tonight. Combination of the above features will bring isolated (20%) showers and thunderstorms spreading from W to E this evening, with 40% PoPs in the SW mountains. Overnight, had isolated showers and storms over the south half of the area. Low PoPs continue across the S on Monday. Had areas of haze/smoke over the area into tonight due to the wildfires and latest webcams. Inverted-v soundings support gusty winds with any thunderstorms through Monday. Will continue Heat Advisory through 9 PM MDT tonight. High temps Monday will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with higher humidities than today. Reinforcing backdoor front will move SW into the area Monday night through early Tuesday. Had 20-30% PoPs in the E/NE zones, as models brought in QPF with the front. Upper ridging will begin to build over the region on Tuesday. Monsoonal moisture remains in the area through Tue. night. This moisture will bring scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms to the mountains (40-50% chance) with lower chances adjacent to the mountains. Low mountain chances continue Tue. evening. Tuesday will be a couple degrees warmer than Monday. Arthur Wednesday through Sunday... A strong ridge with monsoonal moisture will be over the region through Sunday. High temps move back into the mid to upper 90s Thursday through Sunday. On Thu., KBIL had a 45% chance of reaching 100 degrees with nearby river valleys showing a 50-60% chance. Probabilities were lower for Friday through Sunday. Each afternoon had 30-40% chances of showers and thunderstorms in the SW mountains with 20% chances in the NE Bighorns. Some low mountain chances lingered each evening. Probabilities of a wetting rain (0.10) inches were generally in the teens to 20% in the high elevations of the SW. RH`s will be back in the teens from Thursday onward. However, Fosberg indices were low through the period. Hot Dry Windy Index also had nil to low isolated values through Saturday. Arthur && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. Slant range visibility will be reduced at times though with smoke remaining aloft. Light showers with embedded lightning at times will continue to progress from west to east through the region tonight. Main threat is erratic winds with this activity, mainly at KSHR. Additional isolated showers are expected to move across the region tomorrow, with erratic winds being the main threat again. Arends && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 067/092 063/093 064/094 065/099 067/098 066/097 066/096 21/B 01/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 01/U LVM 059/092 054/092 056/093 058/097 060/096 059/095 058/095 22/W 12/W 02/T 12/T 12/T 12/T 11/U HDN 064/092 060/093 061/095 063/099 063/099 063/098 062/097 21/B 11/U 10/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U MLS 065/087 063/088 062/091 065/096 067/098 066/094 065/093 20/U 22/W 00/U 00/U 11/U 10/U 10/U 4BQ 069/090 063/090 061/091 065/096 067/098 066/094 064/093 22/T 11/U 11/U 00/U 11/U 10/U 00/U BHK 061/084 058/085 056/087 059/093 062/095 061/093 060/091 20/U 32/T 10/U 00/U 11/U 10/U 00/U SHR 063/090 057/090 056/092 058/096 060/096 060/094 058/093 32/T 12/T 11/U 11/U 12/T 11/U 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings