Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
635 FXUS65 KBYZ 171532 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 932 AM MDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .UPDATE... Upper level ridge will be over the region today, bringing temps a few degrees higher than Tuesday (highs in low-mid 90s). Moisture over the region is seasonable (pwats ~0.80") and as the ridge axis begins to shift east, we will see diurnal convection develop over the mountains this afternoon (beginning 19-20z). Some weak activity may spread eastward to places like Roundup-Billings in the early evening, otherwise there isn`t much support for storms further east. The greater chance of that is Thursday. In the meantime, any storms today will be high-based (bases ~600mb) and could produce erratic surface winds. Latest HREF shows highest wind probs in Wheatland to Musselshell. Otherwise, skies will remain hazy today courtesy of numerous wildfires over the western CONUS. JKL && .DISCUSSION... Through Thursday Night... Today and tomorrow will see rising heights with temperatures in the high 80s to mid 90s today climbing into the mid to high 90s for tomorrow. During the day today there will be a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly for the Beartooth and Bighorn mountains. Tomorrow a wave will move over the top of the ridge and bring widespread 30-50% precipitation chances. Chances in the west will start in the afternoon and exit into the Dakotas during the overnight. Storms are not expected to be severe as shear values are generally in the 20-30kt range with little CAPE. Persistent easterly winds will keep decent moisture in the area keeping our MinRH values in the 20s for most. Torgerson Friday through Tuesday... Upper level ridging will dominate through the extended forecast period leading to above normal temperatures. Highs will generally be in the 90s...which is somewhat muted for such a strong ridge due to weak perturbations and moisture. PWAT values will often be as much as 120-125% of normal for this time of year...drying out a bit early next week. This will lead to a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day...primarily over the mountains and along the MT/Dakota border region. This time of year strong wind gusts and significant lightning activity are the main threats with storms, but with the higher PWAT values we may see a few storms with locally heavy rain. BT && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours, though slant range visibility will be reduced at times due to numerous wildfires over the western U.S. Isold/Sct thunderstorms expected mainly over and near mountains after 19Z, continuing til 03Z. Thunderstorms have a 10-20% chance of impacting KLVM-KSHR, and a <10% chance at KBIL. Any storms will have the potential to produce briefly erratic surface winds. JKL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 095 063/098 065/094 065/094 063/092 063/092 062/094 1/U 22/T 31/U 01/U 00/U 00/U 01/U LVM 092 056/095 056/094 057/092 056/092 055/091 055/094 2/T 23/T 21/U 11/U 11/U 01/U 11/U HDN 096 060/099 063/095 062/094 060/092 059/093 058/096 0/U 22/T 31/U 11/U 10/U 00/U 00/U MLS 091 064/096 066/091 065/091 064/089 063/090 064/093 0/U 00/U 42/T 11/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 4BQ 092 063/097 066/092 063/090 062/089 062/090 063/092 0/U 00/U 32/T 11/U 10/U 00/U 00/U BHK 088 060/093 062/088 059/088 059/087 059/087 059/090 0/U 00/U 33/T 11/U 11/U 10/U 00/U SHR 094 056/096 059/093 057/090 056/089 056/089 055/092 2/T 22/T 32/T 11/U 01/U 01/U 01/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings