Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
944 FXUS65 KBYZ 292309 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 509 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Turning warm this week with many locations in the 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Increased risk of heat impacts Tuesday and Wednesday. - Chance of thunderstorms begins to increase again by the middle of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Through Monday night... Drier air continues to build in from the northwest this afternoon. This will help confine isolated convection to areas near the Bighorn mountains eastward across southern portions of SE Montana this afternoon. By this evening convection should be mainly south and east of the forecas area. Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm with gusty winds and small hail, but the severe threat looks to remain generally southeast of Montana today. Ridging builds over the area aloft with much drier air (PWATS ~0.5in) tonight through Monday night for mostly clear and dry conditions to start the work week. Highs Monday will trend warmer, into the mid 80s most areas. Chambers Tuesday through Sunday... There is moderate to high confidence that ridging with above normal temperatures is in store this week. The latest forecast has temperatures in the 80s and 90sF with the warmest days being Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The latest heat risk forecast indicates moderate (2/4) impacts on Tuesday and moderate to high impacts (2/4 to 3/4) on Wednesday, and minor to moderate (1/4 to 2/4) on Thursday. This is subject to change as we are still a few days away, but it is important to continue monitoring the forecast and plan activities accordingly. Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week, especially north and east of Billings where the probability for 100F or greater temps is 25-60%. The greatest probabilities are currently shown to be in the river valleys and in northern Rosebud and Custer counties. Along with the warmth, a push of monsoonal moisture is depicted by models moving into the region beginning Tuesday. This will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms into next weekend. Although it is too soon to determine the strength and coverage of storms, continue to monitor the foreast if you have outdoor plans. Overnight lows this week will be in the 50s and 60s. In similar locations to the chance for 100F, there is a 25-70% chance of overnight temps being greater than 70F, Wednesday night. Ensembles are in moderate confidence that a Pacific system will help push the ridge axis east, Thursday into the weekend. This is shown to bring temperatures back around average (80sF) and an increased chance for precipitation. Matos && .AVIATION... 00z Discussion... Breezy conditions will quickly die down to under 10kts by 03z across the region. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period region-wide. Breezy winds out of the NE (20kts) are forecast to return Monday afternoon. There is a slight chance (20%) that KMLS and KBHK could see a brief shower before 02z. WMR && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 055/085 058/093 063/095 064/090 063/084 059/081 058/087 00/U 00/U 11/B 22/T 44/T 33/T 22/T LVM 046/085 050/092 055/090 056/086 054/079 051/078 051/085 00/U 01/U 22/T 24/T 55/T 44/T 32/T HDN 052/086 055/095 061/097 064/091 063/086 058/083 056/087 00/U 00/U 11/B 22/T 54/T 43/T 32/T MLS 054/085 057/095 064/098 068/096 067/087 061/084 059/088 00/U 00/U 10/U 21/B 53/T 33/T 22/T 4BQ 055/083 056/093 063/095 068/093 066/085 060/081 059/085 10/U 00/U 10/U 21/B 53/T 32/T 22/T BHK 051/082 053/090 059/094 064/093 063/086 057/081 054/085 00/U 00/U 10/U 21/B 53/T 33/T 22/T SHR 048/083 052/092 058/093 060/088 058/081 053/079 051/084 30/U 01/U 11/U 23/T 55/T 34/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings