Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
399 FXUS65 KBYZ 112000 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 200 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .DISCUSSION... Rest of Today through Friday Night... Hot and dry conditions prevail early this afternoon across the area. So far, we have not tied or broken any high temperature records (as of 2 PM), but there remains time to do so and we are getting close (records below for reference). While Friday will be hot again, we are not looking at breaking any records that day. With this heat, the Heat Advisory remains in effect for today through Sunday evening, so continue to use caution and take action to protect yourself against the heat through this weekend. While many places will likely remain dry today, isolated high- based showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop during the later afternoon and evening. The majority of this activity looks to develop in the west around the mountains and move east through the evening. Additional thunderstorms may (15% chance) develop in the east this afternoon and evening, but high resolution models want to keep this activity generally north and east of our area. With any activity that develops today, the main threats are erratic winds and lightning. While some activity may (15-20% chance) linger tonight over south- central Montana and northern Wyoming, Friday morning looks to be dry across the region. Isolated high- based showers and thunderstorms are expected again Friday afternoon and evening, but this activity looks to remain farther south over the mountains along the Montana/Wyoming state line and east over eastern MT. Again, the main threats are erratic winds and lightning with this activity. With the lower elevations continuing to dry out, it is important to stay aware of your surroundings and avoid starting a fire over the next few days. On that note, the smoke from the fires to our west will continue to move over our region through the end of the week. Luckily, the majority of this smoke looks to remain lofted with little to no impacts at the surface. Arends The following are today`s daily record highs at each of our airport climate stations. SITERECORD Billings, MT102 (1939) Livingston, MT98 (2002) Miles City, MT103 (2013) Sheridan, WY101 (1939) Baker, MT99 (2013) Saturday through Thursday... Extended period features ridging over the region through the period. On Sunday, Clusters showed a wave to the N of the area which will push a cold front S through the region. On Monday, a wave moves through the ridge, possibly pushing a backdoor front into the area. And for Thursday, the models differed a little on the position of the ridge. Fire weather concerns are possible this weekend, as the Fosberg and HDW indicies showed highlighted areas W of KBIL on Saturday. On Sunday, the HDW showed widespread chances across the forecast area of exceeding the 95th percentile, and the addition of the cold front will increase fire weather concerns. High temperatures will be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees for the weekend. Probabilities of reaching 100 degrees were 40-60% over KLVM, KBIL, KMLS and KSHR. The exception was KLVM dropped to just 7% on Sunday. Highest probabilities were over the river valleys both days. Overnight lows will be in the 60s which was above normal for this time of year. These values supported the Heat Advisory in effect through Sunday. For fire weather, RH values will be in the teens with poor overnight recoveries. Also, ECMWF ensemble meteograms and NAEFS supported boosting wind gusts above the NBM each afternoon and evening based on deep mixing and increasing 700 mb winds. In addition, there will be a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms, mainly over the mountains each afternoon and evening. Will discuss these concerns in FWF. Otherwise, for Monday through Thursday, will have 20-30% chances of afternoon/evening thunderstorms in the southern mountains and over the far SE zones. Temps will be in the low to mid 90s through Thursday. Tuesday was the next day with RH`s in the teens. Will need to keep an eye on this day for any fire weather concerns. Arthur && .AVIATION... While VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours, slight reductions to slant range visibility may occur with smoke aloft. Otherwise, isolated high- based thunderstorms capable of producing erratic winds are expected this afternoon and evening. While all TAF sites could see a shower during this time (overall low chance), the probability of a thunderstorm affecting a TAF site is even lower (15% or less). Will amend TAFs if necessary. Arends && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 066/099 065/100 065/099 066/093 065/094 062/093 063/095 21/U 20/U 10/B 11/B 11/U 11/U 11/U LVM 059/096 057/098 059/096 059/092 057/091 055/091 056/093 11/U 11/U 11/B 12/T 11/U 11/U 11/U HDN 063/099 062/100 062/100 062/093 060/094 059/094 060/096 21/U 20/U 10/B 10/B 11/U 11/U 11/U MLS 067/099 066/097 065/099 065/091 064/091 062/089 063/093 21/U 10/U 10/U 10/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 4BQ 068/100 067/098 067/100 067/093 064/092 062/089 063/093 22/T 11/U 10/U 10/B 11/U 11/U 11/U BHK 063/099 062/094 062/097 061/089 059/089 057/086 058/089 22/T 11/U 10/U 10/U 11/U 11/U 11/U SHR 062/097 060/098 062/098 062/092 057/091 057/091 057/092 22/T 20/U 10/B 11/B 12/T 12/T 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM MDT Sunday FOR ZONES 29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235. WY...Heat Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM MDT Sunday FOR ZONE 199. && $$ weather.gov/billings