Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
651 FXUS65 KBYZ 252002 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 202 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the plains of eastern Montana today. A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe. - High temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s Thursday and Friday. - Daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend. Drier conditions look to return by Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of Today through Thursday night... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the plains of eastern Montana (east of Billings) this afternoon and evening as a subtle shortwave trough tracks over the region. With sufficient CAPE (MUCAPE values modeled around 1000 to 1750 J/kg), modest shear (25 to 35 knots), and above normal moisture (precipitable water values around 1 inch), a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. With any strong to severe thunderstorm that develops, the main threats are wind, hail, and heavy rain. Because of this, the Storm Prediction Center continues to advertise a marginal (1/5) risk of severe weather for the area mentioned above. By sunset this evening, the threat for thunderstorms will come to an end. Thursday will start out dry as temperatures warm into the 80s to lower 90s across the plains. By the afternoon and evening, another shortwave trough looks to track across the region. This, along with modest instability (CAPE values around 250 to 750 J/kg), will allow for additional chances of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (15 to 30 percent chance). Because of the warm temperatures aloft, any convection that initiates over the mountains may struggle to sustain itself over the plains. With that said, inverted-V soundings suggest even elevated showers could produce gusty winds over much of the area. Therefore those with plans sensitive to wind should remain weather aware tomorrow (Thursday). Arends Friday through Wednesday... Confidence continues to increase for weak upper level W/SW flow over the region and a series of low amplitude upper troughs tracking across the Canadian/Montana border Friday through the weekend. This will bring isolated to scattered (30-50% chance) showers and thunderstorms across the region each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Friday has a better chance for CAPE values above 1000 J/kg near the Dakota border (60% chance Friday and 40% chance Saturday) while Saturday has better moisture (0.8-0.9" Friday and 0.9-1.0" Saturday). This will be something to watch for potential for a few stronger thunderstorms to develop. Late Sunday/early Monday, an upper level ridge will begin to build in, reducing the chance for precipitation. By Tuesday, moisture over the region is expected to increase, with PWATs of 1.0-1.2". This moisture will be sufficient for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance, highest over the mountains) to develop with the instability from daytime heating. High temperatures Friday will be in the upper 70s to upper 80s. Then, a cold front moving through the region Friday night into Saturday will decrease highs to near normal, mid 70s to mid 80s, through the weekend. As ridging builds in, temperatures will warm again, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s by Tuesday. Archer && .AVIATION... Isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast over eastern Montana this afternoon and evening. While confidence is low on impacts due to the isolated nature of this activity, KMLS and KBHK have the best chance of thunderstorm impacts (~30 percent chance). Any strong thunderstorm that develops in this area could produce erratic winds, hail, and heavy rain. Brief MVFR conditions are also possible. By late tonight into early Thursday morning, patchy fog is possible over southeastern Montana (~25 percent chance). Outside of this activity, VFR conditions will prevail. Arends && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 055/089 057/085 059/083 058/082 057/087 061/091 061/089 02/T 21/B 21/B 21/U 00/U 11/U 22/T LVM 050/084 048/082 050/082 049/081 050/086 053/090 055/087 03/T 23/T 22/T 11/U 00/U 12/T 23/T HDN 054/090 054/086 058/084 057/084 057/089 059/092 061/091 02/T 20/B 21/B 32/T 10/U 11/U 22/T MLS 058/091 060/088 061/085 060/084 057/088 060/092 064/091 12/T 20/B 31/U 22/T 10/U 10/U 22/T 4BQ 056/088 060/088 061/085 059/082 057/085 060/089 062/089 12/T 20/U 20/U 52/T 20/U 10/U 22/T BHK 053/085 058/086 057/083 055/079 052/081 054/086 058/086 21/U 21/U 21/U 31/U 10/U 10/U 21/U SHR 050/086 054/086 054/083 052/079 051/084 055/088 056/087 02/T 10/B 12/T 33/T 11/U 11/U 23/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings