553
FXUS61 KBUF 061557
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1157 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push east of the area today, ushering in slightly
cooler and less humid weather for the remainder of the weekend.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible at some locations today,
but then high pressure will build in and bring fair weather to
the entire region tonight through Monday night. The next chance
for showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday and Wednesday
when a trough of low pressure moves across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
It will be warm and humid throughout the region today. While
most areas will remain rainfree to start the weekend...there
will be some boundaries that will kick off scattered showers and
drenching thunderstorms.

The first boundary of note will be a convergence zone that will
stretch from near Grand Island and IAG Falls to near Rochester.
These are fairly common in the summer in the wake of a cold front.
Showers and storms have already blossomed along this boundary...and
they should continue to do so through at least the first part of the
afternoon.

There will be plenty of instability for the convection to work with
in this area with 35-40kts of bulk shear...so its not out of the
question that any given storm could get strong to severe.
Otherwise...these are more likely to just be heavy rainers with
localized wind gusts to 40 mph.

Another boundary will be parallel to Lake Erie...stretching from the
Southern Tier to the Lower Genesee valley. This lake breeze boundary
will slowly push east as we make our way through the midday and
afternoon. While instability in this area will be greater...wind
shear will be correspondingly weaker. Nonetheless...this convection
will also favor heavy rainers with some gusts to 40 mph. The highest
risk for such storms will be east of a line running from Chautauqua
Lake to Arcade to about Avon.

Otherwise...partly sunny skies will dominate the region with Td`s in
the mid to upper 60s supporting mid summer weather.

Tonight...high pressure centered over the Ohio valley will slowly
drift east and expand across the Lower Great Lakes. After a few
early evening showers/storms across the Srn Tier...the sfc high will
help to promote fair dry weather. While mild...the mins tonight will
be a few degrees lower than those from early this morning as they
will range from the upper 50s across much of the Srn Tier to the
lower 60s most elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure will pass across our region Sunday, with light
winds and comfortable levels of humidity. Developing lake breeze
circulations through the afternoon will build a little cumulus, but
shortwave ridge axis over our region and lacking deep moisture
should keep the day dry.

Pleasant sleeping conditions for Sunday night with lows dropping
back into the upper 50s interior higher spots, to low/mid 60s closer
to the Lakes and through the Finger Lakes.

Monday the surface ridge will advance to the east, with a southerly
return flow aloft developing through the day. Though dewpoints will
begin to creep upwards, they will still remain fairly comfortable,
save for the Finger Lakes/Southeast of Lake Ontario region where the
axis of low level moisture will push dewpoints into the mid to upper
60s. However the advection of a warmer airmass (850 hPa temperatures
in the mid to upper teens Celsius) and a fair amount of sunshine
will bring afternoon highs back into the mid 80s to around 90F.

Though Monday should remain dry, the increasing moisture may bring a
shower or two Monday night to the Finger Lakes/Southeast of Lake
Ontario. Monday night will also return back to the mugginess, with
overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday and Tuesday night will likely be the most active timeframe
for this period as a mid level trough approaches our region, sending
a plume of deeper moisture across our region that will enhance
showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and overnight.

The continued northward advection of warmth and moisture out ahead
of this system will send PWATs back up to between 1.5 and 2.0 inches
during Tuesday...and this in tandem with daytime heating and
increasing large-scale ascent will support the likelihood of another
round of showers and thunderstorms...with the best chances for these
likely coming between Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise it
should be very warm and humid again before the convection arrives on
Tuesday...with highs generally ranging through the 80s and surface
dewpoints running between 65 and 70.

Latest model consensus supports the initial trailing cold front from
this system crossing our area Tuesday night...with a weaker
secondary boundary then following suit during Wednesday. Coupled
with broad troughing aloft...this may allow some additional
scattered showers/isolated storms to persist through Wednesday.
Otherwise cooler and more comfortable air will filter back across
our region following the passage of the above cold fronts...with
highs Wednesday pulling back to the upper 70s/lower 80s...and lows
Wednesday night dipping back into the upper 50s to mid 60s.

After that...high pressure looks to build across the region
Thursday...before sliding out across New England on Friday. This
will result in generally dry weather to close out the work week...
with continued comfortable temperatures Thursday/Thursday night
giving way to warmer readings on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
While most TAF sites will experience VFR conditions today... showers
and storms focused on two boundaries will produced localized MVFR
conditions. These boundaries will stretch from KIAG to KROC and
from near KJHW to KIUA.

Any diurnally assisted showers and thunderstorms will die off early
this evening...otherwise VFR conditions will be found across the
bulk of the region tonight. The exception will some late night MVFR
cigs east of Lake Ontario...and IFR to MVFR stratus/fog across parts
of the Srn Tier.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...VFR.
Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms
likely.
Wednesday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will pick up today, following the passage of a cold front.
Conditions will approach small craft criteria on Lake Erie today,
with southwesterly winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots at times this
afternoon. Elsewhere winds pick up but will remain below sca
criteria.

High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes Sunday and into
the start of next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions
through mid week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds
and limited waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake
breezes to form each day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...JJR/Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/TMA