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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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740 FXUS61 KBUF 161825 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 225 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will cross the region from west to east today, with localized torrential rainfall and damaging winds possible. A few more showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue tonight through Wednesday as a cold front slowly crosses the eastern Great Lakes. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes Thursday and remain through next weekend, with an extended period of dry and less humid weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AGAIN TODAY MAINLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD... A strong MCV is centered across Lake Ontario and this is resulting in locally enhanced winds aloft. This is creating an environment favorable for severe weather across the forecast area. Across Western NY, early cloud cover associated with the system has limited surface based instability and inhibited storm growth. Because of this have dropped the watch for Western NY. Even so, synoptic winds with the MCV will cause a two hour period with wind gusts to 45 mph. From the Genesee Valley east some sunshine this morning has allowed for destabilization which will support stronger thunderstorms. This is where SPC upgraded to an enhanced risk for severe weather, with damaging winds and large hail the primary risks. Wind shear profiles may even support an isolated tornado. This active weather will all be during the next few hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for this area. A secondary concern is the risk for heavy rainfall. PWAT values on this mornings sounding was about 1.5 inches, and movement of the system will help mitigate flooding risks some. However mesoscale guidance suggest a risk for heavy rain in the Eastern Lake Ontario region where storms may linger a bit longer. A few more scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop later in the afternoon and evening along the southern edge of the Lake Erie breeze, mainly from the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes. These will gradually taper off through the evening. Overnight, the mid level trough and associated cold front will approach slowly from the northwest. Increasing large scale ascent and low level convergence ahead of these features will support an increasing chance of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms again late tonight, but with less coverage and intensity than today. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A cold front will start this period on our western counties doorstep, with the front slicing across the region through the morning and early afternoon hours. A few showers, and later thunderstorms will remain possible along and ahead of this front. Greatest possibilities for thunder will be the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario where greater daytime insolation and developing CAPE (MUCAPE of 500 J/KG) will be realized. A longwave trough will enter into our region Wednesday night with showers ending across eastern zones, and clouds thinning. Some patches of fog will be possible with still a fair amount of humidity to start the night. A much drier airmass will build across our region later Wednesday night and Thursday on a light northerly flow behind the passage of the upper level trough. This will promote fair weather for Thursday and Thursday night. Though temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler Thursday than Wednesday, the dewpoints at least 10 degrees cooler will be more noticeable. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... This will be a spectacular stretch of weather, with a broad ridge of high pressure expanding across the region. A weak cold front will drop southward across the region Sunday, but its passage should largely be rain-free with possibly an isolated shower east of Lake Ontario. Otherwise, there`s good model agreement providing high confidence in rain-free weather. Temperatures will be near normal with daytime highs averaging in the mid 70s to lower 80s and nighttime lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. A few colder spots early Friday morning, and again early Saturday morning could drop into the upper 40s east of both Lakes. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with an upper level disturbance will arrive in Western NY by late morning, then move east across the rest of the area, reaching the eastern Lake Ontario region by mid afternoon. This will bring a likelihood of thunder and brief VSBY/CIG reductions across much of the area, including all the terminals. Some storms may be strong with localized high wind gusts. Mainly VFR conditions will follow later today behind this round of showers and thunderstorms. A few more storms may develop late afternoon through evening from the Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes, mainly east of KJHW and south of KROC. Tonight, the evening showers and thunderstorms across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes will taper off. Overnight, an approaching cold front and mid level trough may produce a few more showers and thunderstorms with uneven coverage. Areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS will develop later tonight through Wednesday morning. Outlook... Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Thursday through Saturday...VFR. && .MARINE... A period of moderate southwesterlies will develop on Lake Erie today, with Small Craft Advisory conditions this afternoon. Winds will be somewhat lower on Lake Ontario, but still enough to produce a moderate chop this afternoon and evening. Another cluster of thunderstorms will cross the eastern Great Lakes today, with locally higher winds and waves. The timing is earlier than yesterday, with the greatest chance of storms this morning through early afternoon on Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario, and midday through late afternoon for the eastern end of Lake Ontario. A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday. West to northwest winds up to 15 knots will produce moderate chop at times Wednesday through Thursday on Lake Ontario, but winds and waves are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010- 019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock SHORT TERM...Thomas LONG TERM...Apffel/Thomas AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock