Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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576 FXUS61 KBUF 161920 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 320 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will exit east of the area through late afternoon. A few more showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight and Wednesday as a cold front slowly crosses the eastern Great Lakes. High pressure will build into the Great Lakes Thursday and remain through the weekend, resulting in an extended period of dry and less humid weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A strong MCV is centered across Lake Ontario this afternoon is resulting in locally enhanced winds aloft. This is creating an environment favorable for severe weather across the Eastern Lake Ontario region. Here there remains a risk of severe weather with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall through around 5 p.m. Radar shows a line of storms across that area now, moving eastward late this afternoon. Across Western NY, early cloud cover associated with the system has limited surface based instability and inhibited storm growth. Because of this have dropped the watch for Western NY. There may be a few scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the western Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes into this evening. Overnight, the mid level trough and associated cold front will approach slowly from the northwest. Increasing large scale ascent and low level convergence ahead of these features will support an increasing chance of showers, but with less coverage and intensity than today. A cold front will move across the region during Wednesday, producing some showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Greatest possibilities for thunder will be the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario where greater daytime insolation and developing CAPE (MUCAPE of 500 J/KG) will be realized. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... A longwave trough will enter into our region Wednesday night with showers ending across eastern zones, and clouds thinning. Some patches of fog will be possible with still a fair amount of humidity to start the night. A much drier airmass will build across our region later Wednesday night through Friday, with a light flow across the region. This will promote fair weather for the period. Though temperatures will only be a few degrees cooler Thursday than Wednesday, the dewpoints at least 10 degrees cooler will be more noticeable. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... This will be a spectacular stretch of weather, with a broad ridge of high pressure expanding across the region. A weak cold front will drop southward across the region Sunday, but its passage should largely be rain-free with possibly an isolated shower. Otherwise, there`s good model agreement providing high confidence in rain-free weather through Monday. A weak trough will approach the area Tuesday, bringing a small chance of showers or thunderstorms. Temperatures will be near normal with daytime highs averaging in the mid 70s to lower 80s and nighttime lows mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A potent cluster of storms across the Eastern Lake Region will exit to the east of the area by around 21Z. Otherwise, lingering MVFR cigs behind an MCV will scatter out. A few stray showers or storms can`t be ruled out through this evening, but mainly VFR conditions expected. Overnight, an approaching cold front and mid level trough may produce a few more showers and thunderstorms with uneven coverage. Areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS will develop later tonight through Wednesday morning. Showers will taper off from west to east late in the day, with cigs gradually improving to VFR late. Outlook... Wednesday night...Mainly VFR. Patchy fog possible in the Southern Tier. Thursday through Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... A period of moderate southwesterlies on Lake Erie will diminishedthrough this evening. Winds will be somewhat lower on Lake Ontario, but still enough to produce a moderate chop. A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday. West to northwest winds up to 15 knots will produce moderate chop at times Wednesday through Thursday on Lake Ontario, but winds and waves are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010- 019-085. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ040-041. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock SHORT TERM...Apffel/Thomas LONG TERM...Apffel/Thomas AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock