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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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054 FXUS61 KBUF 170807 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 407 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and a few thunderstorms today will come to an end from west to east this afternoon as a cold front slides across the region. Much drier air behind this front will lower the humidity to comfortable levels, with air temperatures Thursday and Friday a few degrees below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... This morning a cold front is just to our west, crossing Lake Erie...and bearing down upon western counties. Ahead of the front low top showers are passing across portions of the Niagara Frontier. As the morning progresses, and instability increases, these showers will grow, with potential for thunderstorms by late morning, and then through the afternoon hours. Greatest possibilities for thunder will be the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario where greater daytime insolation and developing CAPE (MUCAPE of 500 J/KG) will be realized. Later this afternoon and this evening behind the cold front winds will veer to west and then northwesterly. This wind flow will bring the start of a much drier atmosphere, with humidity beginning to lower through the night. Fair weather tonight with a light northerly flow, though some valley fog may fill the SOuthern Tier. It will also be a comfortable night for sleeping, with lows in the low to mid 50s across inland higher terrain, to around 60F/low 60s closer to the warm Lakes. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Thursday through Thursday night the mid level longwave trough will move east across Ontario and Quebec, with the southern end of the trough axis crossing NY/PA. DPVA ahead of the trough will provide some large scale ascent Thursday, but surface high pressure and a dry airmass will generally only support diurnal cumulus inland from the lakes with dry weather prevailing. The one exception may be across the North Country where a few spotty light showers are possible. Thursday will be cooler and notably less humid, with highs ranging from the mid 70s for lower elevations and around 70 for higher terrain. Lows Thursday night will drop back into the 50s, with some upper 40s possible across the cooler Southern Tier valleys. Sprawling surface high pressure will then settle over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Friday through Friday night with dry weather and low humidity. Highs Friday will be in the upper 70s to near 80 for lower elevations and mid 70s for higher terrain. Lows Friday night will drop back into the 50s in most locations, with some upper 40s possible in the cooler Southern Tier valleys and Lewis County. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A fantastic stretch of dry weather will continue next weekend as a large area of high pressure remains in control from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Expect mainly dry weather Saturday through Monday. The one feature to watch will be Sunday, when the mid level trough amplifies across Quebec and pushes a weak backdoor cold front south across the area. The front will be moisture starved and weakly forced, but may support a low chance for a few spotty showers. Uncertainty begins to increase by next Tuesday. A broad/weak trough over the Plains will move slowly east to the Mississippi Valley, with a diffuse area of moisture and general low pressure drifting northeast towards the Ohio Valley. Model guidance has shown some run to run variability on how far north this moisture will reach by Tuesday. Overall, the better rain chances will likely stay well south of our region, although given the uncertainty, maintained low rain chances for now. Temperatures will quickly warm as the airmass modifies, with highs slightly above average again by the weekend. This will translate into highs in the low to mid 80s for lower elevations and around 80 for higher terrain Saturday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... For the 06Z TAFS mainly VFR flight conditions, with a few showers across NW NYS, including near the KIAG and KBUF airfields. This activity out ahead of a cold front will expand towards the Southern Tier through the early morning hours. Ceilings of MVFR or IFR are also likely across the Southern Tier this morning. A cold front will push across the region today, with again showers and a few thunderstorms forming. This activity will end from west to east through the afternoon hours behind the cold front. Much drier air returning to the region tonight will return VFR flight conditions, with a light northern wind. Some river valley for is likely tonight across the Southern Tier, possibly expanding towards KJHW. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...VFR. && .MARINE... A cold front will cross the Lower Lakes today from west to east, with showers and a few thunderstorms upon it. Winds will veer to northwesterly tonight, with 10 knots or so on Lake Erie, and perhaps reaching 15 or so knots on Lake Ontario. This will yield waves that may eclipse small craft thresholds on the south and southeastern waters of Lake Ontario, for which a small craft advisory may be needed for tonight. HIgh pressure will then build across the Lakes later tonight through the end of the work week with a light wind flow. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Thomas SHORT TERM...Hitchcock LONG TERM...Hitchcock AVIATION...Thomas MARINE...Thomas