155
FXUS61 KBUF 162016
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
416 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few more showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight
and Wednesday...as a cold front will slowly cross the Lower Great
Lakes. High pressure will then build across the Great Lakes
Thursday and remain through the weekend, resulting in an extended
period of dry and less humid weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Subsidence in the wake of an exiting MCV will combine with sfc based
ridging to provide generally fair uneventful weather across the
region through tonight. A couple of NUISANCE showers though cannot
be ruled out within a mid-upper level cyclonic flow.

A cold front will move across the region during Wednesday, producing
some showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Greatest possibilities for
thunder will be the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario where
greater daytime insolation and developing CAPE (MUCAPE of 500 J/KG)
will be realized.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A longwave trough will enter into our region Wednesday night
with showers ending across eastern zones, and clouds thinning.
Some patches of fog will be possible with still a fair amount of
humidity to start the night.

A much drier airmass will build across our region later Wednesday
night through Friday, with a light flow across the region. This
will promote fair weather for the period. Though temperatures
will only be a few degrees cooler Thursday than Wednesday, the
dewpoints at least 10 degrees cooler will be more noticeable.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This will be a spectacular stretch of weather, with a broad ridge of
high pressure expanding across the region. A weak cold front will
drop southward across the region Sunday, but its passage should
largely be rain-free with possibly an isolated shower. Otherwise,
there`s good model agreement providing high confidence in rain-
free weather through Monday. A weak trough will approach the
area Tuesday, bringing a small chance of showers or thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be near normal with daytime highs averaging
in the mid 70s to lower 80s and nighttime lows mainly in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will dominate the region for the remainder of the
daylight hours into this evening.

Areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS will develop later tonight through Wednesday
morning. Showers will taper off from west to east late in the day,
with cigs gradually improving to VFR late.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR. Patchy fog possible in the
Southern Tier.
Thursday through Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A period of moderate southwesterlies on Lake Erie will diminished
through this evening. Winds will be somewhat lower on Lake Ontario,
but still enough to produce a moderate chop.

A cold front will cross the Lower Great Lakes Wednesday. West to
northwest winds up to 15 knots will produce moderate chop at times
Wednesday through Thursday on Lake Ontario, but winds and waves
are generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010-
     019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/RSH
NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH
SHORT TERM...Apffel/Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel/Thomas
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock