880
FXUS61 KBUF 170549
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
149 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a few thunderstorms today will come to an end from west
to east this afternoon as a cold front slides across the region.
Much drier air behind this front will lower the humidity to
comfortable levels, with air temperatures Thursday and Friday a few
degrees below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Subsidence in the wake of an exiting MCV will combine with sfc based
ridging to provide generally fair uneventful weather across the
region through tonight. A couple of NUISANCE low top showers
though cannot be ruled out within a mid-upper level cyclonic
flow.

A cold front will move across the region during Wednesday, producing
some showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Greatest possibilities for
thunder will be the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario where
greater daytime insolation and developing CAPE (MUCAPE of 500 J/KG)
will be realized.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A longwave trough will enter into our region Wednesday night
with showers ending across eastern zones, and clouds thinning.
Some patches of fog will be possible with still a fair amount of
humidity to start the night.

A much drier airmass will build across our region later Wednesday
night through Friday, with a light flow across the region. This
will promote fair weather for the period. Though temperatures
will only be a few degrees cooler Thursday than Wednesday, the
dewpoints at least 10 degrees cooler will be more noticeable.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This will be a spectacular stretch of weather, with a broad ridge of
high pressure expanding across the region. A weak cold front will
drop southward across the region Sunday, but its passage should
largely be rain-free with possibly an isolated shower. Otherwise,
there`s good model agreement providing high confidence in rain-
free weather through Monday. A weak trough will approach the
area Tuesday, bringing a small chance of showers or thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be near normal with daytime highs averaging
in the mid 70s to lower 80s and nighttime lows mainly in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For the 06Z TAFS mainly VFR flight conditions, with a few showers
across NW NYS, including near the KIAG and KBUF airfields. This
activity out ahead of a cold front will expand towards the Southern
Tier through the early morning hours. Ceilings of MVFR or IFR are
also likely across the Southern Tier this morning.

A cold front will push across the region today, with again showers
and a few thunderstorms forming. This activity will end from west to
east through the afternoon hours behind the cold front. Much drier
air returning to the region tonight will return VFR flight
conditions, with a light northern wind. Some river valley for is
likely tonight across the Southern Tier, possibly expanding towards
KJHW.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will cross the Lower Lakes today from west to east,
with showers and a few thunderstorms upon it. Winds will veer to
northwesterly tonight, with 10 knots or so on Lake Erie, and perhaps
reaching 15 or so knots on Lake Ontario. This will yield waves that
may eclipse small craft thresholds on the south and southeastern
waters of Lake Ontario, for which a small craft advisory may be
needed for tonight.

HIgh pressure will then build across the Lakes later tonight through
the end of the work week with a light wind flow.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Apffel/RSH/Thomas
SHORT TERM...Apffel/Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel/Thomas
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas