865
FXUS61 KBUF 120543
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
143 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture from the exiting remains of Beryl will continue to
gradually thin out across the region tonight, supporting areas of
fog. High pressure from the Upper Great Lakes will build across the
region on Friday and supply the vast majority of the forecast area
with fair dry weather through the weekend. It will be warm and
moderately humid with the warmest weather coming during the weekend
when daily highs will generally range from 85 to 90.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
While the center of circulation of whats left of Beryl is in the
process of crossing New England, a wealth of low level moisture
remains in its wake over our forecast area. This moisture will
gradually thin out as we progress through tonight, but it will be a
slow process and for areas that do experience some clearing, it will
likely lead to areas of fog, as is the case in the valleys of the
Southern Tier. This fog could be dense in open areas and across the
higher terrain.

High pressure over the Upper Great lakes will then build across our
area Friday and Friday night. This will help to further clear out
the remaining low cloud cover while supporting fair dry weather. The
increased sunshine on Friday will make for a warmer day, as the
mercury will once again return to the low to mid 80s.

A shortwave trough will ripple across southern Ontario and Quebec on
Saturday with zonal flow setting up across the lower Great Lakes by
Saturday night. Meanwhile at the surface, ridging across the Lower
Great Lakes will support fair weather for the start of the weekend,
with a few afternoon showers and storms possible well inland from
both lakes. Temperatures and humidity levels will be on the rise
creating warm sticky conditions Saturday. Highs Saturday will peak
in the 80s with the warmest temperatures across the Genesee Valley
and south of Lake Ontario.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will ripple across southern Ontario and Quebec
on Saturday with zonal flow setting up across the lower Great Lakes
Saturday night. Meanwhile at the surface, ridging across the Lower
Great Lakes will support fair weather through for the start of the
weekend. However, temperatures and humidity levels will be on the
rise creating warm sticky conditions Saturday. Highs Saturday will
peak in the 80s with the warmest temperatures across the Genesee
Valley and south of Lake Ontario.

The next mid-level shortwave trough will cross the Great Lakes
Sunday and Sunday night, which in return will support the next round
of showers and thunderstorms to enter into the region starting
Sunday afternoon. Despite the shower and thunderstorm activity,
should not the whole day will not be a complete wash out.
Southwesterly flow will advect in warm moist air into the region
Sunday, creating sultry conditions with highs maxing out in the
upper 80s across the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region
to the low 90s across the Genesee Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Longwave troughing will be in place across the Great Lakes
throughout the first half of the new work week. A few shortwave
troughs will rotate through this longwave pattern during this time
as well. With this pattern overhead, diurnally driven convection
will be possible each day. The last potent shortwave trough that
causes the longwave pattern to shift mid-week, will support a cold
front to pass from west to east, supporting showers and storms
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

An impressive ridge building over the high plains and Rockies will
support expansive high pressure over the Great lakes region for the
end of the week. This will translate into abundant sunshine for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR and low end VFR cigs will remain in place this evening. Areas
that experience temporary clearing during the course of tonight will
promote low stratus and fog to develop overnight, as is the case for
KJHW. The greatest chance for real improvement will be over the IAG
Frontier and possibly at KROC.

On Friday, IFR to MVFR cigs south and east of Buffalo and Rochester
will gradually improve to VFR levels by late morning/midday. Winds
will be light.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Just a slight chance for afternoon
thunderstorms across parts of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
The surface pressure gradient will begin relax throughout the region
tonight into Friday as high pressure from the upper Great Lakes
moves into the region. This will allow winds and waves to lower
through the period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/RSH
NEAR TERM...EAJ/RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ/RSH
AVIATION...EAJ/RSH/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA