315
FXUS61 KBUF 122330
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
730 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure will build across the region through this
weekend supporting mostly dry and fair weather. Warm and moderately
humid weather is expected this weekend with highs ranging in the mid
80s to the low 90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level trough is centered over the Great Lakes region early
this evening as a deep southwest flow continues across the region.
Showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the mid-level trough over
southern Ontario will stay outside the region. However, a few
isolated showers are possible from the interior Southern tier into
the Finger Lakes this evening as a humid airmass remains in place.

Any showers will subside later this evening. The mid level trough
will move north of the region tonight while high pressure settles
across the region. There remains a light, warm, southerly flow which
will keep temperatures mild overnight. Valley fog will form across
the western Southern Tier and Black River Valley late tonight into
Saturday morning.

Surface high pressure remains across the forecast area Saturday and
Saturday night. A westerly flow aloft will drive slightly drier and
cooler air into the region Saturday. This will result in less
cumulus and a low chance of showers, mainly confined to the Finger
Lakes region Saturday afternoon. Temperatures and heat indices will
be very close to today, Friday. Dry weather will continue through
Saturday night. Patchy fog is possible Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will hold onto fair weather Sunday, with summer`s
warmth in the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday night and into Monday a shortwave within zonal flow will pass
across our region, interacting with an atmosphere with MUCAPE values
1000 to 2000 J/KG to produce showers and thunderstorms. There is
still some uncertainty to the timing of this convective shortwave
among various model outputs. Lake breeze circulations Monday
afternoon will likely develop additional storms pulsing up through
the early evening hours.

Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday
night with instability lingering within a still moist environment.

It will be warm this period, where the inland Genesee Valley and
Finger Lakes region may reach 90F both Sunday and Monday. Southwest
flow off the Lakes will likely leave the shoreline and inland areas
such as Buffalo and Watertown in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moist, southwesterly flow Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a robust
mid level shortwave trough will maintain the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Increasing wind shear Tuesday and Wednesday, along
with building CAPE aloft will bring the potential for strong
thunderstorms with strong winds and hail potential. The cold front
will sweep across our region Wednesday, bringing a drier airmass,
and more comfortable temperatures, with highs Thursday and Friday in
the mid to upper 70s with much less humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will move into the region tonight through
Saturday. Daytime cumulus will diminish this evening. Valley fog is
likely to develop across the western Southern Tier and Black River
Valley. Valley fog will likely cause restrictions at KJHW into
Saturday morning.

Fog will diminish Saturday morning and daytime cumulus will begin to
form mid to late morning.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Just a slight chance for afternoon
thunderstorms across parts of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with scattered thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR to MVFR,
with a chance of IFR or below in thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build east across the lower Great
Lakes this weekend, resulting in quiet conditions with light winds
and limited waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK/TMA
MARINE...EAJ/TMA