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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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252 FXUS61 KBUF 131723 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 123 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will ridge across the region through Sunday, resulting in mostly dry and fair weather during the weekend. Additionally, expect warm and moderately humid weather with highs ranging in the mid 80s to the low 90s. Active weather will return Sunday night with a risk of showers and thunderstorms lasting through Wednesday as a series of weak disturbances moves through. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A broad ridge of high pressure will ridge across the region, resulting in mainly rain free weather for the weekend. There`s a slight chance of instability driven showers across the Western Southern Tier and in Lewis County this afternoon. After this, dry weather will prevail tonight and the vast majority of Sunday. A mid-level trough will approach from the west late in the day Sunday, possibly sparking a few showers or thunderstorms across far Western NY just before sunset. Otherwise, afternoon temperatures will be on the warm side this weekend with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday. Good radiational cooling underneath the surface high tonight with lows in the 60s and patchy fog possible in the Western Southern Tier river valleys. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Expect some unsettled weather to start the new work week as model consensus continues to key in on a couple of potential convectively augmented shortwaves moving through the broad trough over the Great Lakes and Northeast, which may cross the area on Sunday night and Monday respectively bringing better chances for showers and thunderstorms back into western and northcentral NY. Though the track, timing, and strength of these features is typically difficult to forecast, as mentioned above the bulk of the guidance packages is in surprisingly decent agreement on said convective elements. However, there is still a bit of disagreement on exact timing and track. For these reasons, will cap PoPs in the high Chc range for now. A more pronounced southwesterly flow will also set up on Monday, along with diurnally driven lake breeze circulations. A very warm and more humid air mass will be in place to start the new work week, so would also expect at least some scattered afternoon/early evening convection to fire along and inland of these boundaries as well, but again exact location of said boundaries is still in question. A weak area of transient high pressure will try to nudge in across the area Monday night, however with model guidance advertising yet another convectively augmented shortwave right on its heels, will keep SChc to low Chc PoPS for showers/storms in the forecast due to the continued uncertainty in track and timing of these features. Have high confidence in very warm and sticky conditions prevailing during this period. Mid 80s to near 90 for highs on Monday will be bookended by warm and sticky lows in the upper 60s to low 70s for most both Sunday night and Monday night. Heat indices Monday will likely be in the low 90s for the bulk of the lake plains, Genesee Valley, and Finger Lakes region. Low pressure will slide from east-central Ontario Province into west- central Quebec Tuesday and Tuesday night. In the process the system will send a prefrontal trough through our area Tuesday...then will push its trailing cold front toward/into our region Tuesday night. Timing of prefrontal trough Tuesday could produce a few feisty storms with the aid of daytime heating, however shear profiles at this time remain modest keeping more robust severe potential low. Nocturnal approach/passage of the cold front will also keep severe potential on the low side, although shear profiles do become more favorable just ahead of the cold front, so can`t completely rule out the chance for a nocturnal severe storm or two with a very moist and unstable air mass in place. With PWATs climbing to the vicinity of 2 inches...there will again also be the potential for torrential rainfall with any storms. Otherwise, it will be another very warm and humid day Tuesday with highs a couple ticks higher than those seen on Monday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... On Wednesday the surface cold front will either make or complete its passage across our area...with the medium range guidance packages still exhibiting some differences in timing. The exact timing of the front will be key to determining how much severe potential will exist during Wednesday...with a slower passage allowing for more time for daytime destabilization and therefore a greater risk for a few stronger to severe storms...with this greatest along our southeastern periphery. In contrast...a faster passage would likely preclude much in the way of destabilization and consequently severe risk. Given the uncertainty...for now have maintained a mix of chance to low-end likely PoPs during Wednesday. As for temps...highs on Wednesday should generally range from the upper 70s to lower 80s. By Wednesday evening the main cold front should be well south and east of our area...with a weaker secondary cold front then potentially crossing our area later Wednesday night and Thursday. Cannot completely rule out another couple showers with this second boundary as it crosses our region...however given the time frame and limited accompanying moisture will keep PoPs below the slight chance threshold for now. Otherwise sprawling Canadian high pressure will gradually extend eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the rest of this period and bring a return to cooler and more comfortable weather. Expect surface dewpoints to fall into the 50s later Wednesday and remain there through Saturday...while highs pull back to the lower to mid 70s Thursday...then only gradually climb back to the upper 70s to lower 80s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Widespread VFR flight conditions for the vast majority of the 18Z TAF cycle. few-sct cumulus this afternoon with cloud bases around 4k feet. River valley fog is expected again tonight, which may bring a period of IFR or lower conditions to the KJHW terminal. Any fog will dissipate by mid-morning Sunday, with VFR conditions through 00Z Monday. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon across Western NY. Outlook... Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR to MVFR, with a chance of IFR or below in thunderstorms. Thursday...VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will continue to build east across the lower Great Lakes this weekend, resulting in quiet conditions with light winds and limited waves. A generally weak pressure gradient will result in quiet conditions through Monday night, then winds will pick up a bit on Tuesday in response to a trough of low pressure. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/EAJ NEAR TERM...Apffel SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...Apffel MARINE...Apffel/TMA