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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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046 FXUS61 KBUF 150242 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1042 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over eastern New York and New England will drift to the Atlantic coastline through tonight. Very warm and sultry conditions will then follow for Monday and Tuesday along with periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will then cross the area between Tuesday night and Wednesday along with some more showers and thunderstorms...with notably cooler and drier air then following in its wake for the rest of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY EVENING/... Weak convection over Chautauqua county at 1030 PM will continue to weaken as it will move into a somewhat drier and more stable environment. Otherwise...tonight should be mainly dry but will be notably more uncomfortable than the last couple of nights with surface dewpoints climbing into the mid to upper 60s and low temperatures having trouble falling below the upper 60s and lower 70s in many places. This will be due to a combined effort a relatively deep southwesterly flow...cloud cover and a layer of West Coast wildfire smoke aloft. On Monday...at least one more convectively-augmented wave looks to cross the region during the day...however the timing and placement of this wave remains much in question at this time. Regardless... this feature along with developing lake breeze boundaries should help to generate at least some additional scattered showers and thunderstorms...with this activity possibly becoming a bit more numerous inland from the lakes during the afternoon...particularly if the shortwave passage aligns with peak diurnal heating. With PWATs up around 1.75 inches...any storms could produce locally heavy downpours. Otherwise the sultry conditions will continue...as highs of 85 to 90 will coupled with surface dewpoints near 70 degrees. While this could briefly yield some apparent temperatures near 95 degrees across portions of the Finger Lakes...will hold off on any heat advisories for now given the expected brief/marginal nature of such readings...as well as the potential for convection to inhibit apparent temps from actually getting that high. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Ensemble members show zonal, mid-level flow across the eastern Great Lakes region Monday night through the first part of Tuesday night. A westerly, 500mb flow will increase during this time as a sharp mid- level trough moves south from James Bay. Mid-level winds will begin to back to the southwest ahead of this trough late Tuesday night with a 50kt winds at 500mb across the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. The trough maintains a positive tilt as it slides across the Great Lakes region Wednesday night. Deterministic models including CAMs show the potential for convectively induced shortwave troughs to trigger convection at times Monday night through Wednesday. A cold front will move through the forecast area Wednesday bringing a switch to cooler and drier weather. Warm and muggy weather is expected Monday night with low temperatures in the low 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. A southerly wind will increase through the overnight hours and should preclude widespread fog development, however patchy fog is possible in sheltered valleys. Previous day convection will be exiting the forecast area Monday evening with mostly quiet weather the rest of the night. A convectively induced shortwave trough will approach the region Tuesday morning. Convection may still be ongoing in the warm and humid airmass so chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase across the far west late Monday night into Tuesday morning. This impulse will move across the forecast area late Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. There is some question as to how much surface based instability will form due to cloud cover, however PWATS will be increasing with dewpoints in the low 70s. Temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s, with mid to upper 80s across the Finger Lakes region into central NY. Instability will likely rise over 1000 J/kg and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage. The wind field ahead of an approaching mid-level trough will be increasing, however shear remains weak to marginal. Wet microbursts are possible with an isolated threat of severe storms. Showers and thunderstorms may also form across the Niagara Peninsula and enter Niagara county Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening. Any thunderstorms are capable of heavy downpours and localized flooding. At this time, thunderstorm coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered across the forecast area with low confidence that flooding would occur in any particular place. Regarding heat, heat index values may reach the mid 90s in the Finger Lakes region. Cloud cover and rain could play a role in temperatures through the afternoon. While we have heat indices in the mid 90s in this area right now, confidence is not there to issue a Heat Advisory. A cold front will approach the region Tuesday night. Previous afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will move east of the forecast area Tuesday evening, while another round of showers and thunderstorms may move into the forecast area from the west or the south overnight. Confidence is low where and when showers and thunderstorms will be and kept low to medium chances overnight. The cold front will enter the forecast area Wednesday morning. Model consensus shows the cold front entering the forecast area Wednesday morning. As the front moves east, drier and more stable air will move into the region from the west. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely ahead of the cold front but due to the timing of the cold front, the more favorable conditions will be far inland before they move out of the forecast area. Mostly dry weather is expected Wednesday night. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Sprawling Canadian high pressure will gradually extend eastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the period and bring a return to cooler and more comfortable weather. Expect surface dewpoints to fall into the 50s later Wednesday and remain there through Saturday, while highs pull back to the lower to mid 70s Thursday, then only gradually climb back to the upper 70s to lower 80s by Saturday. && .AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure over eastern New York and New England will drift to the Atlantic coastline tonight. While most areas will experience fair VFR weather overnight...MVFR cigs will become likely across the western Southern and possibly at sites such as KBUF and KART. Monday...a robust mid level shortwave will push across the region within an ever increasingly unstable and moisture rich airmass. This will lead to more widespread showers and thunderstorms than the past few days and should encourage times of MVFR conditions in the vcnty of thunderstorms. Outlook... Tuesday and Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday...VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure over eastern New York and New England will drift to the Atlantic coastline through tonight. Southwest winds will increase into the 10-15 knot range tonight through Monday as the high drifts off the east coast, enough to produce some chop on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. The southwest winds will increase further Monday night through Tuesday, producing more notable chop on both lakes. There is a chance of a few thunderstorms across eastern Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario this afternoon and evening...then in a more general sense later overnight through Wednesday...with the potential for locally higher winds and waves in and near any storms. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJR NEAR TERM...JJR/RSH SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...JM/JJR AVIATION...RSH MARINE...Hitchcock/JJR