Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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381 FXUS61 KBUF 060528 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 128 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... There will be some showers and thunderstorms overnight, as a weak cold front moves across the region. This front will usher in cooler weather for Saturday. High pressure crossing the region Saturday night will provide fair weather for the remainder of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Radar shows an area of thunderstorms moving across the Eastern Lake Ontario region early this morning. One storm in the cluster briefly intensified, with a limited risk for severe weather with these storms as it moves eastward early this morning. Otherwise, a weak cold frontal boundary will enter Western NY late tonight, moving eastward during the day Saturday. There could be some scattered showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary through daybreak. A shortwave and weak surface low will track into southern Quebec on Saturday, with an associated cold front pushing east of our area during the day. Saturday will be breezy and not quite as warm and humid in the wake of this cold frontal passage. Outside of a few lingering chances for some showers across the eastern Lake Ontario and western Finger Lakes regions, the remainder of the region should be rain-free. It will be cooler and slightly less humid. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... While there could be a couple leftover showers across the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley early Saturday evening attendant to the departing weak surface low/cold front...Saturday night will otherwise be dry and uneventful as high pressure and drier air over the Ohio Valley noses northeastward across our region. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The aforementioned high will then continue to ridge northeastward across New York State and into New England Sunday and Sunday night. This will support continued largely dry and fair weather...though lingering weak surface troughing could still support another isolated shower across the North Country/Saint Lawrence Valley during Sunday. Otherwise Sunday`s highs on will range within a few degrees of 80 in most locations...with lows Sunday night again in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Monday and Monday night the axis of the surface ridge will slip off the New England coastline...while the next mid-level trough and associated weak frontal system slides across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes. The developing southerly return flow in between these features will help to pump warmer and more humid air back into our region. As a result highs on Monday will climb back to the mid 80s to lower 90s...with lows Monday night then only falling to the mid 60s to lower 70s...all while surface dewpoints make their way back into the mid to upper 60s. Meanwhile generally dry weather will continue to prevail...though cannot rule out a few isolated showers and storms along our southeastern periphery Monday afternoon/evening in tandem with a passing shortwave. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The mid-level trough and its associated weak surface reflection will then slide across our area Tuesday and Tuesday night. The continued northward advection of warmth and moisture out ahead of this system will send PWATs back up to between 1.5 and 2.0 inches during Tuesday...and this in tandem with daytime heating and increasing large-scale ascent will support the likelihood of another round of showers and thunderstorms...with the best chances for these likely coming between Tuesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise it should be very warm and humid again before the convection arrives on Tuesday...with highs generally ranging through the 80s and surface dewpoints running between 65 and 70. Latest model consensus supports the initial trailing cold front from this system crossing our area Tuesday night...with a weaker secondary boundary then following suit during Wednesday. Coupled with broad troughing aloft...this may allow some additional scattered showers/isolated storms to persist through Wednesday. Otherwise cooler and more comfortable air will filter back across our region following the passage of the above cold fronts...with highs Wednesday pulling back to the upper 70s/lower 80s...and lows Wednesday night dipping back into the upper 50s to mid 60s. After that...high pressure looks to build across the region Thursday...before sliding out across New England on Friday. This will result in generally dry weather to close out the work week... with continued comfortable temperatures Thursday/Thursday night giving way to warmer readings on Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR flight conditions to start the 06Z TAFS. There`s risk for fog and/or stratus across the Western Southern Tier with IFR conditions likely to develop. Elsewhere there`s a small risk for MVFR or lower in showers and thunderstorms, or in patchy stratus through Saturday morning. A cold front will move from west to east across the area Saturday morning. This will promote drying with clouds lifting and scattering. Widespread VFR flight conditions by Saturday afternoon which will last through Saturday evening. Late Saturday night patchy river valley fog is likely in the Southern Tier. Outlook... Sunday and Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely. Wednesday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds will remain light on the lower Great Lakes overnight with a weak pressure gradient in place. A cold front will cross the region Saturday, with freshening southwest winds. Sustained winds wind could near 20 knots for a time Saturday afternoon which may necessitate some small craft headlines, mainly on the eastern end of Lake Erie. High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes Sunday and into the start of next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions through mid week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds and limited waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake breezes to form each day. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Thomas/TMA NEAR TERM...Apffel/HSK/Thomas/TMA SHORT TERM...JJR LONG TERM...JJR AVIATION...Apffel/HSK MARINE...Apffel/TMA