576
FXUS61 KBUF 161920
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
320 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms will exit east
of the area through late afternoon. A few more showers and
isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight and Wednesday as a
cold front slowly crosses the eastern Great Lakes. High pressure
will build into the Great Lakes Thursday and remain through
the weekend, resulting in an extended period of dry and less
humid weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A strong MCV is centered across Lake Ontario this afternoon is
resulting in locally enhanced winds aloft. This is creating an
environment favorable for severe weather across the Eastern Lake
Ontario region. Here there remains a risk of severe weather with
damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall through around 5
p.m. Radar shows a line of storms across that area now, moving
eastward late this afternoon.

Across Western NY, early cloud cover associated
with the system has limited surface based instability and
inhibited storm growth. Because of this have dropped the watch
for Western NY. There may be a few scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from the western Southern Tier into the
Finger Lakes into this evening.

Overnight, the mid level trough and associated cold front will
approach slowly from the northwest. Increasing large scale ascent
and low level convergence ahead of these features will support an
increasing chance of showers, but with less coverage and
intensity than today.

A cold front will move across the region during Wednesday,
producing some showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Greatest
possibilities for thunder will be the Finger Lakes and east of
Lake Ontario where greater daytime insolation and developing
CAPE (MUCAPE of 500 J/KG) will be realized.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A longwave trough will enter into our region Wednesday night
with showers ending across eastern zones, and clouds thinning.
Some patches of fog will be possible with still a fair amount of
humidity to start the night.

A much drier airmass will build across our region later Wednesday
night through Friday, with a light flow across the region. This
will promote fair weather for the period. Though temperatures
will only be a few degrees cooler Thursday than Wednesday, the
dewpoints at least 10 degrees cooler will be more noticeable.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This will be a spectacular stretch of weather, with a broad ridge of
high pressure expanding across the region. A weak cold front will
drop southward across the region Sunday, but its passage should
largely be rain-free with possibly an isolated shower.
Otherwise, there`s good model agreement providing high
confidence in rain-free weather through Monday. A weak trough
will approach the area Tuesday, bringing a small chance of
showers or thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be near normal with daytime highs averaging
in the mid 70s to lower 80s and nighttime lows mainly in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A potent cluster of storms across the Eastern Lake Region will
exit to the east of the area by around 21Z. Otherwise, lingering
MVFR cigs behind an MCV will scatter out. A few stray showers or
storms can`t be ruled out through this evening, but mainly VFR
conditions expected.

Overnight, an approaching cold front and mid level trough may
produce a few more showers and thunderstorms with uneven
coverage. Areas of MVFR/IFR CIGS will develop later tonight
through Wednesday morning. Showers will taper off from west to
east late in the day, with cigs gradually improving to VFR late.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR. Patchy fog possible in the
Southern Tier.

Thursday through Sunday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A period of moderate southwesterlies on Lake Erie will
diminishedthrough this evening. Winds will be somewhat lower
on Lake Ontario, but still enough to produce a moderate chop.

A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday. West to
northwest winds up to 15 knots will produce moderate chop at times
Wednesday through Thursday on Lake Ontario, but winds and waves are
generally expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ010-
     019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ040-041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Apffel/Thomas
LONG TERM...Apffel/Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel/Hitchcock
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock